Canada Economics Update Canada’s election unlikely to be a key driver of the loonie We doubt that the outcome of next week’s federal election in Canada will have much bearing on the economy and the loonie. Instead, we still think that bond yield differentials and oil prices will be... 17th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Developments in China shake up the outlook Three key developments in China over the past month or so are worth highlighting, as they feed into our broader asset allocation forecasts for the next couple of years. First, what started as a... 16th September 2021 · 13 mins read
Capital Daily China’s financial markets, Evergrande, and global spill-overs Although we doubt the current slowdown in China’s economy will reignite 2015-style “hard-landing” fears that weigh heavily on risky assets generally, we are anticipating some negative spill-overs... 16th September 2021 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update What China’s economic slowdown may mean for FX markets The growing risks associated with the property sector in China underscore our view that the renminbi will weaken against the US dollar before long, even if financial stability risks do not escalate... 16th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Can Sri Lanka avoid default? Falling foreign exchange reserves, a declining currency and a high level of foreign currency debt mean the risk of a sovereign default in Sri Lanka is growing. While the country should be able to... 16th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of inflation and bond yields in the UK and US The renewed rise in consumer price inflation in the UK reported today contrasts with the dip in the US announced yesterday. Admittedly, the former has risen from a low level, while the latter has... 15th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Net capital outflows from emerging markets appear to have eased over the past month, helped by a pickup in portfolio flows into South East Asia and India. Looking ahead, even if rising US Treasury... 15th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Japan’s politics and financial markets Despite investors’ hopes for a potential renewal of Abenomics-style policy in Japan, we suspect the yen will continue to hold its ground much better than after Abe was elected in 2012. 13th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Putting risky asset valuations into context This Update compares the valuations of the twelve different “risky” asset classes that we cover on our Asset Allocation service, both relative to one another and to the yields of “safe” assets, as... 13th September 2021 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rebound looks unconvincing After weakening over the preceding two weeks, the US dollar has rebounded against most other currencies this week. Nonetheless, last week’s disappointing payrolls report and the slightly less upbeat... 10th September 2021 · 9 mins read
FX Markets Outlook We think the dollar’s summer rally may resume Although it has fallen back a bit over the past three weeks, the dollar has been on the front foot for much of the summer and we think it will make some further headway over the next few months. In... 10th September 2021 · 22 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the rally in the US dollar is over Although the US dollar, in aggregate, has fallen back sharply from its high of the year over recent weeks, we expect it will soon reverse course and strengthen against most currencies. CE Spotlight... 10th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect Japan’s stock market to run out of steam While uncertainty remains about the implications of the resignation of Japan’s PM Suga for the country’s equities, we think the big picture is that they will see relatively small gains over the next... 10th September 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Shortages stifling activity and boosting inflation The broadening of the recent product and labour shortages appears to be holding back activity and adding to the upward pressure on inflation. The risk is twofold. First, these shortages may prevent... 9th September 2021 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily E-Z yields likely to rise only gradually despite PEPP recalibration The ECB announced a reduction in the pace of its asset purchases today, but both its forward guidance and its updated economic projections still suggest that the Bank will keep monetary policy very... 9th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Evergrande & frontier sovereign debt risks build The combination of large foreign-currency debt burdens, low FX reserves and weakening currencies means that the risk of sovereign defaults in Sri Lanka and Tunisia is growing. Elsewhere, China’s... 9th September 2021 · 6 mins read
