US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Oct.) Existing home sales eked out a small gain in October, slowing considerably from last month’s increase. With inventory at a record low, buyer sentiment in a pit and mortgage rates on the rise, we... 22nd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly House prices surge, floods devastate BC The renewed surge in house prices could persuade the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates sooner than we forecast, although the hit to activity from the devasting floods in BC this week reduces the... 19th November 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Little sign of momentum in prices abating The end of the stamp duty holiday has had remarkably little impact on buyer demand. If anything, the imbalance between strong home purchase demand and limited supply is intensifying. Indeed, Rightmove... 19th November 2021 · 8 mins read
China Economics Update Home sales on the cusp of a rebound New home sales have dropped by a fifth since March, a similar-sized slump to those seen during the previous two housing downturns. With policy now turning more supportive, high-frequency data suggest... 19th November 2021 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Update MBS taper won’t widen mortgage spreads The announcement that the Fed will start to taper its purchases of MBS this month is not set to widen mortgage spreads. The cut in demand will be gradual and offset by a moderation in the supply of... 18th November 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Oct.) Single-family starts dropped for the fourth consecutive month in October to a 15-month low. But we expect starts will soon turn the corner. New home demand is strong, lumber prices have eased back and... 17th November 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Outlook good for mortgage delinquencies Low mortgage rates, strong earnings growth, plenty of cash savings and a surge in home equity have pushed the early mortgage delinquency rate to a record low this year. Most of those factors will... 15th November 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Increase in mortgage rates to be limited Anticipation of higher interest rates has pushed up fixed mortgage rates. And with scope for banks to absorb higher costs in their margins now exhausted, future changes in interest rate expectations... 12th November 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Oct.) Rather than representing a “rush before mortgage rates rise”, we suspect that the rise in new buyer interest in October will prove durable. With inventory very limited, that points to house prices... 11th November 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack House price growth cools as rents take off The homeowner and rental markets are starting to swap places, with home sales and prices cooling as rental demand and rents take off. Rising mortgage rates have started to bring housing demand down... 10th November 2021 · 9 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Higher interest rates to dab on the brakes We think it will take longer than most others expect for rising interest rates to bring down the curtain on the COVID-19 house price boom. A large stock of household savings, the ongoing adjustment to... 8th November 2021 · 22 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Dovish surprise reduces housing market risks The indication from the Bank of England that Bank Rate of 1.25% would be too high for the economy suggests that the forthcoming rise in interest rates won’t be anywhere near large enough to topple the... 5th November 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Booming home sales fail to raise homeownership rate Despite the exodus from cities and booming home sales last year, the homeownership rate in the third quarter was virtually unchanged from its level prior to the arrival of COVID-19. And with soaring... 4th November 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI (Oct.) Construction firms reported that activity strengthened in October despite higher costs and continued difficulty sourcing materials. The big picture is that until those constraints ease construction... 4th November 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Oct.) Mortgage rates rose to an eight-month high in October, which drove a significant decline in refinancing activity. But home purchase demand saw a much smaller dip, and we expect it will trend down only... 3rd November 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Oct.) Yet another upside surprise in house prices last month confirmed that the end of the stamp duty holiday in September did little to cool the market. We expect house prices to continue to beat... 3rd November 2021 · 2 mins read
