US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Nov. 12) The fall in housing starts in November should prove to be no more than a temporary set-back. The forward-looking indicators point to a decent rise in starts in December, and a continued underlying... 19th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Moderating housing trends mimic US slowdown The continued decline in existing home sales support our view that a potentially severe housing correction is underway. Assuming that sales continue to trend lower heading into next year, then sharper... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Could 2013 bring a positive surprise to the housing market? The housing market could benefit from a number of positive surprises in 2013. In particular, two thatspring to mind are an acceleration of the take-up of the Funding for Lending Scheme, and ongoing... 14th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Rebound in household formation to support rental market Rebounding household formation will be a tailwind for the housing recovery. But with the overwhelming majority of newly forming households over the next few years set to rent rather than own their... 13th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Weak economic outlook points to prolonged rental stagnation Rather than the direct measures announced (e.g. REIT changes), the more relevant aspect of the Autumn Statement for the commercial property sector was probably the confirmation that a strong economic... 11th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Surge in HARP refinancing continues The typical guarantee fee charged by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to lenders rose to a high of 46 basis points in early December. Mortgage borrowers will soon see fees rise as a result, but this will... 11th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response FSA Mortgage Lending Statistics (Q3 12) FSA data on the mortgage market in the third quarter make for grim reading, with lending down but mortgage rates and arrears both up. While it is too early for the FLS to have had an effect on these... 11th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Housing Market Survey (Nov. 12) After a surprisingly strong set of results last month, a softening across most of the indicators in the November RICS survey confirms that the housing market is still very depressed. 11th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing investment decline likely to worsen The declining trend in housing starts supports our view that a housing correction is underway. The slump in new and existing home sales suggest that this slowdown will worsen next year, hitting the... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market activity improves as the year ends The housing market is showing some renewed signs of life as the year ends, but we suspect these will be snuffed out during 2013. An economy struggling to grow, increases in unemployment and a... 7th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Shifting up the gears The housing recovery is building a real head of steam. We anticipate further strong gains in home sales and housing starts in 2013. At the national level, price gains are likely to match those seen... 6th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Nov. 12) The largest monthly rise in house prices for eight months would seem to provide further evidence that the housing market is ending 2012 on a more positive note. But with the economy set for another... 6th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Taxing high-value property – will it make London uncompetitive? An annual charge on some owners of residential property worth over £2m is unlikely to have a material impact on London’s competitiveness. The main impact will be to lower the price of those homes... 5th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Nov.) Mortgage applications for home purchase ticked up slightly in November and are now rising year-on-year. While the bigger picture is still that demand for purchase mortgages remains very subdued, this... 5th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Oct. 12) Adjusting for the normal seasonal dip in house prices seen at this time of year, prices rose again in October. Therefore, the underlying trend in the CoreLogic measure of house prices is strongly... 4th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Construction PMI (Nov.) and Mergers & Acquisitions (Q3) The CIPS/Markit construction PMI suggests that commercial property developers have become more rather than less cautious about the occupier demand outlook, while weak mergers & acquisitions data also... 4th December 2012 · 1 min read
