Europe Commercial Property Update Further fall in Italian investment likely this year A poor economic outlook and elevated political risks are unlikely to result in a reversal of the increased risk aversion towards Italian property assets. As a result, investment in Italy is likely to... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What do retail sales say about retail rents? Despite poor Christmas trading, the improvement in retail sales in the middle of 2018 pointed to a recovery in retail rental value growth this year. Nevertheless, with the retail stock still adjusting... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Outlook for Spanish office rents still good With only a small downgrade to our outlook for the Spanish economy, office occupier demand looks set to stay healthy. As such, rental growth in Barcelona and Madrid will continue to be amongst the... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack End-2018 total returns soften to 7.5% y/y Indicators suggest that UK economic growth slowed towards the end of 2018, in part due to households and businesses delaying spending in response to Brexit-related uncertainty. This is likely to... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Re-assessing the outlook for German occupier markets A poorer outlook for the German economy has increased the downside risks to our outlook for occupier markets, most notably in the industrial sector as weaker global demand cools export growth. 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Investment in Europe shifting back to core strategies With plenty of capital still waiting to be deployed and attractive returns on offer, investment in European commercial property is likely to be strong again this year. However, a swing back towards... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Nordic investment set to maintain its recent strength Outperformance in the Nordic economies will support occupier markets and rental growth prospects this year. As a result, we think that investment volumes in 2019 will be close to the level recorded in... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Sharper euro-zone slowdown increases occupier risks A weaker outlook for the euro-zone economy is likely to see a more marked slowdown in rental growth, shifting the risks to property markets on the occupier side. 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Commercial property investment (Dec.) Weakness in investment in December likely reflects investors holding fire due to uncertainty but, even so, we do not expect investment to rebound in 2019. 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Structurally lower interest rates support valuations With interest rates likely to be structurally lower in the future, prime property yields are unlikely to return to historical levels. As such, we have re-weighted our valuation scores to exclude the... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Falls in real estate equities overstate weakness Falls in real estate equity values over the turn of the year suggest that all-property capital values could decline by 10% y/y. However, we think these movements overstate the weakness. Even so, the... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Nov.) Consistent with the softness seen in investment and development activity, net lending was subdued in November. And with capital and rental value growth expected to slow further in 2019, a sustained... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Outlook for total returns in 2019 Commercial property returns are expected to moderate considerably in 2019 and risks are clearly to the downside. But if we are right and GDP growth rebounds this year, the outlook for office and... 3rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Could a no deal Brexit bring upside to the euro-zone? A no deal Brexit is unlikely to provide much support for property in the rest of Europe. The negative impact on euro-zone occupier markets should be modest, but investors, rather than reallocate UK... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Property yields to plateau With growth in the euro-zone slowing faster than expected and the chances of the ECB delaying its first interest rate hike increasing, property yields are now more likely to plateau next year, than... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What do non-prime to prime yield spreads suggest? At the all-property level, the difference between non-prime and prime yields does not suggest that either is mispriced. However, non-prime yields for shopping centres look low relative to prime yields... 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
