Europe Commercial Property Update

Early Q4 data show adjustment to higher rates goes on

Early prime office yield data for Q4 suggest that the property correction deepened at the end of 2023. The sharp rises in yields occurred despite a more favourable market interest rate environment...

17th January 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Industrial to join offices as worst-performing sector

We are downbeat on industrial total returns over the next two years compared to the consensus because of our relatively pessimistic views on both rents and cap rates. And we think the risks to long...

16th January 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Rapid Response

Commercial Property Lending (Dec)

Net lending on commercial real estate (CRE) by banks was positive again in December, rising by $4.2bn in the month. (See Table 1.) That said, the monthly change was broadly in line with the average in...

16th January 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Revisiting Dubai’s GRE debts

We have long highlighted the risk in Dubai’s corporate sector and the large debts that government-related entities (GREs) have accrued. This Update provides our latest estimates of these debts. The...

16th January 2024 · 6 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Rental slowdown set to continue in 2024

The resilience of euro-zone rental growth last year surprised us. But our analysis indicates that better-than-expected economic activity explained much of that strength and as recession looms in 2024...

16th January 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

Scotland & N.I. to outperform, while the South recovers

There was a wide disparity in house price growth across regions in 2023 and little reason to think that this year will be any different. Following the recent decline in mortgage rates, we suspect the...

15th January 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Update

Key US housing market calls for 2024

We doubt that the modest fall in mortgage rates we anticipate this year will bring a great deal more stock onto the market. Because of that, the supply of existing homes will remain very tight, so we...

12th January 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

Approaching a turning point in construction

Note: Following the publication of government statistics on housing construction in Q3 2023 today, we are sending clients a revised version of this Update first published on 11 January. Barring Q2...

11th January 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Can regional industrial rents outperform?

In contrast to most of the past 20 years, RoUK industrial rental growth has almost matched the South East over the past couple of quarters. But that is unlikely to last. The boost to demand for big...

11th January 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

No sign of a flight to quality in office pricing, yet

Much has been talked about a ‘flight to quality’ in the office sector given the structural shift to hybrid working. However, while there is evidence of this in relative rental performance, a look at...

11th January 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Italy retail rent growth to slow, but continues to lead

The surge in Italian prime retail rents over the past year is likely to give way in 2024, as inflation falls back and consumer spending stagnates. But the strong fundamentals that have supported this...

10th January 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Five key calls for US commercial real estate in 2024

Our total returns forecasts for 2024 are significantly below consensus, as we predict that value falls will reach double digits for the second consecutive year. Retail stands out as the only sector...

9th January 2024 · 4 mins read

US Housing Market Update

2023 in review

In what was an extremely volatile year for the housing market, we made two key forecasting errors. Firstly, we didn’t anticipate the extent of the rise in mortgage rates. Because of that, we...

5th January 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

UK commercial property returns to stabilise, if not shine

Stubbornly high inflation pushed risk-free rates, and yields, somewhat higher than we had anticipated by the end of 2023. By contrast, rental growth proved surprisingly resilient even as the economy...

5th January 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

Lower interest rates pave the way for a stronger 2024

Our forecast of earlier Bank Rate cuts mean that mortgage rates will be significantly lower than we had anticipated this year, which will lead to a stronger recovery in demand from mortgaged buyers...

5th January 2024 · 4 mins read