US Commercial Property Update Falling CMBS delinquencies explain slower debt growth Outstanding commercial real estate debt held by banks is likely to rise again in the coming months, providing the improvement in investment transactions seen in September continues. Yet even if there... 22nd October 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Industrial yields could be 50bps below offices by 2022 The industrial sector could see a further increase in its share of investment in the coming quarters thanks to both its own resilience and concerns surrounding the other sectors. Those diverging... 19th October 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Home working to cut office demand by up to 10% An abrupt U-turn on workers returning to their offices last month signalled that the virus will continue to dominate lives in the UK into next year. In fact, we think office working may never quite be... 19th October 2020 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Update ULI Consensus Forecast (Fall 2020) Consensus forecasts for this year have been revised upwards, although the outlook for total returns remains negative. At the same time, the prospects for 2021-22 have been downgraded, but only... 14th October 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Focus Is COVID-19 the death-knell for physical retail? Retail has been hit hard by the COVID-19 crisis and lasting changes to online spending will bring further pain. While our estimates suggest that the impact is likely to be less severe than structural... 8th October 2020 · 27 mins read
US Commercial Property Update What could the election mean for commercial property? While Joe Biden is currently favourite to win the election, we don’t think the winner’s identity will have a major effect on the economy. We also don’t expect it to substantially alter the prospects... 7th October 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Major Office Markets Outlook (Q3 2020) Absorption is falling in all markets and vacancy is ticking higher, particularly in D.C. and San Francisco (SF). But more pain is to come, and we have significantly downgraded our forecasts for the... 2nd October 2020 · 8 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Hopes fading for a real estate bounce next year While we continue to think that this year’s property downturn will be milder than in past cycles, next year’s recovery is looking more fragile. This in part reflects revisions to our economic view... 1st October 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Does COVID-19 mean the end of real estate’s bull run? Commercial property has outperformed both Treasuries and equities in the last two decades, but the fast-forward of structural change caused by COVID-19 will mean that in the next decade property is... 25th September 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Remote working fatigue won’t derail long-run adoption Low utilization of office space supports our expectations of weak short-term demand. And, despite some firms raising concerns over productivity as the current remote work “experiment” continues, there... 23rd September 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Only industrial escapes downgrades While we expect the economic recovery to continue, there are downside risks in the next couple of years, particularly in the consumer sector. This will weigh on retail property, which we expect to be... 21st September 2020 · 23 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Slower recovery in values given weaker office outlook As widely expected, Q2 brought a range of disappointing data, from plunging investment volumes to further falls in retail rents. And while property values outside of retail have generally held up so... 18th September 2020 · 33 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Remote working poses significant downside to rents As we have argued in our Global Property Focus, we think that some of the increase in remote working seen this year will become a permanent feature of working practices in office-based sectors in the... 14th September 2020 · 17 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Aug.) Total real estate debt held its ground in August, as a rise in commercial debt was offset by a drop in residential. The rise in the former can be explained by rent arrears, particularly in the retail... 11th September 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Focus The outlook for housing in a post-COVID world Even after the immediate threat of COVID has receded, we expect as many as 50% of office-based employees will work from home at least once a week. But the move away from cities and toward the suburbs... 9th September 2020 · 22 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Scenarios for the effect of remote working on US offices Given uncertainty around the level of adoption of remote-working, change in space allocated per worker and how large any reduction in supply might be, we provide a set of potential scenarios for the... 24th August 2020 · 3 mins read
