Latin America Chart Pack Weaker Chinese demand starting to weigh on exports There are growing signs that falling commodity prices and weaker demand from China are starting to take their toll on the economies of Latin America. In those countries that are most dependent on... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: further policy easing expected this year The consensus view that the current strength of domestic demand rules out rate cuts in Chile looks to us to be fundamentally misplaced. Instead, in the absence of fresh rises in metals prices... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America’s exports take a turn for the worse A recent drop in regional export growth can be attributed to a number of factors, of which slowing Chinese commodity demand may be the most prominent. We expect export revenues to come under further... 15th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update How real is the threat of protectionism? Concerns that Latin America might be spiralling towards a new era of protectionism have emerged in 2012. But while it is true that the region as a whole has seen an increase in protectionist trade... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Inflation concerns subsiding in Latin America In line with our forecast, inflation has eased across most of the region in 2012 as the effects of last year’s food price shock work their way out of the annual comparison. We expect this trend to... 6th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Checking up on our equity market forecasts Our previous analysis, suggesting that Brazilian and Argentine equities would be most vulnerable to a general spike in risk aversion, has been borne out in the recent sell-off. Mexican markets, on the... 25th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack From currency war to currency rout Financial markets across the whole of Latin America have been hammered over the past month by a euro-zone related flight to safety but amid the sell-off the collapse in the Brazilian real stands out... 25th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Strong start to the year in Chile unlikely to last The Chilean economy registered strong growth in Q1, but we doubt that the impressive performance can be maintained. With copper prices already down by about 10% so far this month, and likely to fall... 18th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Spanish banking links revisited The direct exposure of Latin American banks to the deepening crisis in Spain is not as great as it seems at first sight. Even so, there are at least three ways in which the region’s banks could be hit... 18th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update From currency wars to interest rate wars Not content with waging a “currency war” against the rest of the world, Brazil’s government is now doing battle with its own banks over the high interest rates charged on loans to consumers and... 17th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America currencies battered by flight to safety Renewed fears about the future of the euro-zone have sparked a retreat from all risky assets in recent days, and Latin American currencies have been no exception. For now, the risks remain skewed to... 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Weaker global economy to expose local vulnerabilities Relative to the rest of the world, at least, the immediate outlook for Latin America remains good. Nonetheless, vulnerabilities are starting to emerge in a number of the region’s economies, which are... 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Can Chile get rich off commodities? History indicates that it is very difficult for a country to get rich purely through the extraction of natural resources. In order to meet President Piñera’s target of becoming a developed nation... 9th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Counting the cost of Argentina’s trade barriers Protectionist trade controls in Argentina are already taking a toll on growth in neighbouring countries, with Paraguay and Uruguay hardest hit. In the longer-term, however, it may be Argentina that... 8th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Tweaking our interest rate forecasts We are making some small tweaks to our forecast for interest rates in Latin America. If the global economy weakens later this year, as we expect, it is still likely that most central banks in the... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Inflation has further to fall The decision by Brazil’s central bank earlier this month to cut interest rates once again has raised concerns in some quarters about the outlook for inflation over the rest of this year. As it happens... 25th April 2012 · 1 min read
