Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Divergent outlook for monetary policy in Sweden and Norway Underlying Swedish inflation is set to pick up further and means that the Riksbank’s ultra-loose policy is no longer justified. Conversely, the outlook for Norwegian inflation calls for an interest... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Labour Force Survey (Jan.) We doubt that the labour market is recovering as quickly as the decline in the Labour Force Survey measure of unemployment suggests. While things are gradually improving, wage growth looks set to... 22nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Inflation will undershoot Norges Bank target in coming years The Norges Bank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged came despite a deterioration in the outlook for inflation. Policymakers remain concerned about the impact of loose monetary policy on the... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Will the Norges Bank respond to falling inflation? We think that the Norges Bank will leave monetary policy unchanged at its meeting next week. While inflation has fallen much more quickly than policymakers expected, accelerating house prices are a... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Consumer Prices (Feb.) February’s inflation data revealed that inflation is falling much more quickly than the Norges Bank expected. While activity surveys have strengthened recently, we think that inflation will continue... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Euro-zone political risk to boost Nordic & Swiss currencies This month see the first of a number of key elections in the euro-zone this year. Investors are likely to become increasingly worried about the potential for anti-euro parties to enter government and... 6th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Finnish GDP (Q4) & National Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) Activity surveys suggest that Q4’s slowdown in Finland will be short-lived. And February’s PMIs point to faster manufacturing growth in Switzerland, Sweden and Norway. They also imply that price... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Big movements in Icelandic markets The Icelandic króna has appreciated significantly over the past month, as the central bank reiterated its desire to reduce its foreign exchange intervention. More generally, bond yields have fallen... 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Total returns prospects still strong across the region Concerns about higher inflation and potential rises in interest rates have seen bond yields rise in the last few months. Nevertheless, we think the outlook for bond yields and therefore, property... 27th February 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Labour Force Survey (Dec.) December’s sharp decline in Norway’s unemployment rate was not as encouraging as it first appears. And while surveys suggest that employment growth will pick up, we suspect that wage growth will... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Inflationary pressure rising in Sweden, fading in Norway While inflation fell in both Sweden and Norway in January, the outlook for prices in these countries differs significantly. Consumer price inflation in Sweden fell from 1.7% to 1.4% in January. But a... 21st February 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian GDP (Q4) Norway’s economic recovery picked up in Q4, and surveys suggest that growth might edge up further in the near term. This should add to the upward pressure on the krone as oil prices rise this year. 9th February 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Is the Swiss National Bank tolerating a stronger franc? The recent appreciation of the Swiss franc suggests that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may now be willing to tolerate a (slightly) stronger currency. But we see the franc rising even further to reach... 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) January’s PMIs add to the evidence that the Swedish economy has made a strong start to the year. They also suggest that price pressures are building in Switzerland. 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Currencies make a strong start to the year The Nordic and Swiss currencies have generally strengthened this month, albeit for different reasons. This is a trend that we expect to continue this year. 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden (Dec.) & Norway (Nov.) Labour Market Data December’s labour market data suggest that wage pressures are building in Sweden, supporting our view that the Riksbank will tighten policy this year. But in Norway, despite November’s fall in... 26th January 2017 · 1 min read
