Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Survey synchronisation; NOK resurgence The sharp fall in the forward-looking Swiss investor sentiment indicator in August mirrored the pattern seen in the German Ifo. While sentiment was bound to soften sooner or later and Switzerland has... 27th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden GDP (Q2) & ETI (Aug.) The release of GDP data from Sweden this morning confirmed that the economy surpassed its pre-virus peak in Q2, and we expect output to make further gains in Q3. 27th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norges Bank in the final furlong; CHF on the up We expect the Norges Bank to deliver on its plan to start to raise interest rates, in September, which could offer some respite for the beleaguered krone. Meanwhile, data released next week are likely... 20th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Norway going its own way The SNB and the Riksbank will leave interest rates on hold throughout 2022 and 2023 and probably beyond, but the start of rate hikes by the Norges Bank is edging ever closer. (See here.) Once the... 16th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Sweden Consumer Prices (Jul.) The slight pick-up in Swedish headline inflation in July was primarily driven by a rise in energy inflation. However, the fall in core inflation to its lowest level since 2014, means that the Riksbank... 13th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly KOF coming back earth; Sweden powering ahead The latest fall in the KOF Economic Barometer suggests that the tailwinds that have driven the rebound in the Swiss industrial sector are fading. But with the hospitality sector going from strength to... 30th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Sweden GDP Indicator (Q2) & ETI (Jul.) The 0.9% q/q increase in Swedish GDP in Q2 was a touch weaker than our forecast (+1.0%) but stronger than the consensus (+0.7%). While the best of the rebound in the industrial sector may be behind us... 29th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property A primer on European residential property Less favourable demand fundamentals and less scope for yield compression mean that European residential returns are likely to be lower in the coming years than over the previous decade. An analysis of... 27th July 2021 · 17 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Summer Olympics not N&S’s comparative advantage Switzerland and the Nordic countries don’t tend to excel in the summer Olympics but they dominate the winter games when their comparative advantage of lots of snow and mountains becomes apparent. Next... 23rd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway GDP (May) & Sweden GDP Indicator (May) The larger-than-expected rise in mainland Norwegian GDP in May indicates that the economy is back in business following the lifting of restrictions, and it is likely to have regained its pre-virus... 7th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Consumer confidence and the US stock market We do not think that the surge in the Conference Board’s index of consumer confidence in June is a reason to be positive about the outlook for the US stock market. 30th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank to start to shrink its balance sheet next year After last week’s hawkish shift by the Fed, and the erasure of any doubt about the start of hikes by the Norges Bank, the Riksbank may also pencil a rate hike into its projections next Thursday (1st... 24th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Fractious politics don’t change Swedish macro picture The passing of this morning’s “no confidence” vote in Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Löfven has plunged Sweden back into a period of political purgatory. While the political outlook is unclear, the... 21st June 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Putting the Norges Bank’s looming hikes into context A rate hike by the Norges Bank in September would make it the first G10 central bank to start to raise interest rates after the pandemic, by a comfortable margin. As a result, the NOK is likely to... 15th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly No inflation scare in Scandinavia or Switzerland… If there is a global inflation scare, the Scandinavians are yet to get the memo. In a week when we learnt that core inflation hit a 28-year high in the US in May, we also learnt that the core... 11th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway & Sweden Consumer Prices (May) Inflation in Norway and Sweden was lower than expected in May, with core inflation falling in both economies. This will reassure Sweden’s Riksbank that it can keep its policy rate on hold, but we... 10th June 2021 · 2 mins read
