Emerging Europe Economics Focus Is Emerging Europe doomed to lag behind? There are encouraging signs that the slowdown in Emerging Europe has bottomed out in recent months and we think growth should strengthen over the second half of this year. The recovery will remain... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish easing cycle at an end Following today’s cut in Polish interest rates, we now expect rates to be kept on hold until 2015. If anything though, the risks to this forecast lie on the downside. Elsewhere, there are concerns... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update PMIs add to evidence of improvement in Eastern Europe The latest batch of Emerging European manufacturing PMIs adds to the growing sense that things are improving in the region. This reinforces our view that growth in the second half of this year is... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Credit conditions still tight Our latest Banking Heat Map suggests that credit conditions in most countries in Emerging Europe remain extremely tight. The main exception is Turkey, where credit growth has accelerated again in... 28th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Grounds for cautious optimism The latest activity data from Emerging Europe provide some grounds for cautious optimism. Growth in the highly open Central European economies appears to be picking up, albeit from low rates. And... 26th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian and Polish easing cycles nearing an end Policymakers in Hungary and Poland look set to cut interest rates at least once more, probably next month, but we think easing cycles are nearing an end in both countries. 25th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Protests hit Turkish markets Turkey’s financial markets have taken a pounding over the past few weeks as the recent wave of protests caused investors to take fright. Elsewhere, currencies and foreign currency bonds have lost... 19th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Hopes that CEE investment had turned a corner are dashed The likely drop in Central & Eastern European (CEE) investment volumes in Q2 will have dashed any hopes that the trend for activity might have turned a corner. Moreover, the recent sell-off in... 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q1 GDP breakdown provides glimmer of hope The breakdown of Q1 GDP across Emerging Europe showed that the region’s economy is probably in a slightly better shape than the (weak) headline growth figures would suggest. Accordingly, we think that... 6th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish rates to stay below 3% until 2015 Following today’s cut in Polish interest rates, Governor Belka gave few hints about the likelihood of further easing. We think it’s most likely that interest rates will be left on hold at 2.75% over... 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central European manufacturing showing signs of revival May’s PMIs provided some encouraging signs that manufacturing in Central Europe is turning the corner, helped by stronger demand from Germany. Worryingly though, the data indicate that the Turkish... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Sluggish Polish growth to prompt further policy easing The breakdown of Polish Q1 GDP data confirmed that domestic demand remained extremely weak and it looks like there has been little improvement in April. Combined with below-target inflation, we think... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Slump in regional growth may be bottoming out The raft of preliminary GDP data released earlier this month provided some hope that the region’s slowdown bottomed out in the first quarter of the year. Nonetheless, growth is extremely weak, at just... 24th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Parent bank deleveraging easing The pace at which parent banks in Western Europe have scaled back funding for subsidiaries in Eastern Europe has slowed further since the start of the year. Nonetheless, credit conditions in much of... 21st May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Are Polish capital values likely to plunge again? The impact of the 2009 Polish economic slowdown on commercial property prices was exaggerated by the huge boom in rents and ‘over-convergence’ of property yields that characterised the preceding few... 15th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Set for a sluggish and uneven recovery The slowdown in Emerging Europe appears to have bottomed out at the start of the year. We expect growth to pick up over the second half of 2013, but the risk of a flare-up in the euro-crisis, the... 14th May 2013 · 1 min read
