Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Euro-zone crisis adds to recovery headwinds (Q2 2010) Problems in the euro-zone’s periphery will exacerbate the twin-speed recovery already underway in Emerging Europe. No country would escape unscathed from a full-blown crisis in Western Europe, but... 16th June 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is Romania on the brink of another political crisis? The Romanian government looks set to scrape through tomorrow’s no-confidence vote, thus averting a fresh political crisis and keeping relations with the IMF on track for now. But with the vote... 14th June 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Q1 GDP data a mixed bag (May 10) First quarter GDP data, released by most countries over the past month or so, paint a mixed picture. The highly open economies of Central Europe – notably Slovakia – continue to rebound at a fairly... 25th May 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Politics comes into play in Hungary (May 10) Concerns that the new government in Hungary will jeopardise the independence of the National Bank appear to be coming to fruition. While much remains uncertain, it seems clear that PM Orban will now... 18th May 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Where now for Romanian interest rates? While the National Bank of Romania appears to be reaching the end of its current easing cycle, with the economic recovery still facing significant headwinds, rate hikes remain a distant proposition. 5th May 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Contagion risks from Greece high and rising (Apr 10) Concerns over the deepening crisis in Greece have weighed on financial markets across the region over the past couple of weeks. While no country has escaped, the contagion risks appear greatest in... 30th April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Changes at the top do not change outlook for policy (Apr 10) Both Poland and the Czech Republic are set to announce new Central Bank governors over the coming months. But we suspect this will do little to alter the policy bias in either country. Poland will be... 15th April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary & Romania still playing catch-up The fact that policymakers in both Hungary and Romania are still cutting interest rates when their counterparts elsewhere in the world have begun to withdraw stimulus measures reflects the depth of... 29th March 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Too soon to dismiss fiscal risks (Mar 10) Financial markets in Emerging Europe have, for the most part, brushed off sovereign debt concerns in the euro-zone’s periphery. While bond markets sold off earlier this year as the crisis in Greece... 29th March 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rates hikes still not imminent (Mar 10) Market rate expectations have edged down in recent weeks, but we still think that the pace of tightening currently priced in for most countries in the region is too aggressive. While inflation has... 19th March 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Q4 GDP data a mixed bag (Feb 10) Q4 GDP data, released over the past month, have painted rather a mixed picture. The good news is that a number of countries, notably Russia and Poland, appear to have grown on a quarterly basis. But... 25th February 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Policymakers to look through rise in inflation (Feb 10) Although inflation has risen across much of the region in recent months, policymakers remain in no rush to raise interest rates. For a start, the bulk of the pick-up in inflation has been caused by... 18th February 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: interest rates cut again, but recovery to disappoint This morning’s decision by the National Bank of Romania (NBR) to cut interest rates by 50bps to 7% is testament to the more stable political outlook that has emerged since the end of last year. With... 3rd February 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Pick-up in inflation to prove temporary (Jan 10) Inflation across much of Emerging Europe has risen in recent months. Nonetheless, there are good reasons to think that these rises will be short-lived. For a start, the pick-ups have been driven... 29th January 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update In no rush to tighten (Jan 10) While policymakers in a number of countries have appeared less dovish of late, three factors should keep interest rates much lower than the markets currently expect. First, the pace of economic... 21st January 2010 · 1 min read
