Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia's new oil tax: radical reform or damp squib? The relative stagnation in Russian oil production over the past few years has long been a concern for policymakers. However, it seems unlikely that the new, more favourable, tax regime for Russian oil... 16th November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Solid Q3 for Russia, while Hungary teeters on the brink Data released today show that the Russian economy grew by a fraction under 5% y/y in the third quarter of this year, but leading indicators are already pointing to a slowdown in Q4. Meanwhile, the... 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Upside surprise from PMIs, but industry still slowing October’s manufacturing PMI data came in stronger than expected in most of Emerging Europe. Nevertheless, this does not hide the fact that hard data are weakening. On a quarterly basis, it appears... 2nd November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: WTO gains depend on wider economic reform After nearly 20 years of negotiations, Russia now appears to be on the cusp of joining the WTO. But while in theory at least WTO membership could bring major economic benefits, in practice these will... 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Markets rebound, but growth slowing Financial markets in Emerging Europe have rebounded following this summer’s turmoil. Equity markets (Turkey aside) have rallied by around 8% or more this month, while the region’s currencies have... 28th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is Russia's Central Bank running out of options? Russia’s Central Bank (CBR) is in a bind. While recent liquidity shortages in the banking sector and an improved outlook for inflation argue in favour of monetary easing, the weak ruble and persistent... 26th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update End is in sight for the rally in Moscow property yields Recent declines in Moscow commercial property yields have been steeper than we had expected. Even so, there are now signs that investment demand is softening. If we are right that the economy will... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Little room for manoeuvre Although financial markets have recovered a little this month, the activity data from the region has continued to soften. Yet in pretty much every country, policymakers have less scope to stimulate... 22nd October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Sovereign Debt: are the emerging markets immune? Emerging markets are not immune from the deepening debt crisis in the developed world, but most are well-placed to deal with the fallout. China faces a difficult structural transition of its own but... 21st October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Solid Q3 for Russia, but slowdown on the horizon The raft of activity data for September released earlier today allow us to firm up our forecast for Russian growth in the third quarter. The good news is that the economy appears to have expanded at a... 20th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What next for the ruble? Russian markets have been hit hard during the recent financial market turmoil: the RTS equity index was down by 18% in September and the ruble lost 10% against the dollar. While the currency and... 14th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia's balance sheet revisited In light of recent events, this Update provides a brief snapshot of the health of Russia’s public finances. The short point is that while public debt is very low, the budget position is increasingly... 30th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Markets battered as euro-crisis deepens The past couple of days have seen a rebound in the region’s financial markets, but this has reversed only a fraction of the losses seen over the past month. Most equity markets, for example, are still... 29th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The return of President Putin This weekend’s news that current President Medvedev will step aside to allow Vladimir Putin to run for the presidency at next year’s elections has raised hopes that lower political uncertainty will... 27th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Focus shifts to boosting growth & safeguarding stability The latest turmoil in markets and the rapidly deteriorating outlook for global and regional growth mean that fears about rising inflation, which dominated the policy debate over the first half of this... 24th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian economy gains momentum September’s activity data suggest that Russia is heading for a strong economic performance in the second half of 2011. What’s more, with both the consumer sector and industry picking up, growth looks... 20th September 2011 · 1 min read
