Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia: a new era of weaker growth Following a decade of rapid growth, we think that the Russian economy is entering a new phase where much weaker growth becomes the norm. We believe the economy is unlikely to grow by much more than 2... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: the implications of oil's fall to below $100pb The drop in oil prices over the past month will limit the room for fiscal stimulus in response to the slump in Russia’s economy since the turn of the year and is another reason to expect the recovery... 17th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What has driven Russia's slowdown? The raft of Russian activity data for March, due to be released this week, is likely to show a slight improvement from February. But growth in Q1 is still set to be much weaker than at the end of last... 16th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update CEE property investment data: a mixture of good and bad news Emerging European property investment markets seem to have started 2013 brightly. Yet the sharp rise in region-wide investment volumes was in most part driven by a huge rise in activity in Russia. If... 11th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Market rally reverses course Most Emerging European stock markets and currencies have weakened over the past month on the back of the Cypriot crisis and fears of contagion to the rest of the euro-zone. This serves as a timely... 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Policy easing likely to focus on weaker ruble Pressure is mounting on Russian policymakers to act to stimulate the slowing economy. But unlike in 2008-09, there is little room for a large-scale fiscal stimulus. And substantial cuts in interest... 5th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia Q4 GDP data old news, Q1 set to be even worse Detailed Q4 GDP data for Russia, released earlier today, confirmed what we already knew – namely that economic growth slowed to its weakest pace in three years in the final quarter of last year. More... 2nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Manufacturing recovery stutters The latest batch of manufacturing PMIs in Emerging Europe shows that activity slowed across the board last month. Activity remains strongest in Turkey. But the weakness of the Central European... 2nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Cyprus crisis could exacerbate slowdown in Russia The loss to Russian investors from the levy on Cypriot bank deposits remains uncertain, but a plausible estimate is somewhere around €5bn. This is fairly small in the grand scheme of things and the... 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Turkey leading the recovery, Russia lagging behind The latest activity data from Emerging Europe have been something of a mixed bag. Turkey is leading the recovery as a rebound in credit growth has fuelled domestic demand. Here, we think GDP growth... 21st March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: the slowdown deepens A raft of weak activity data for February puts a big dent in hopes for a rebound in the Russian economy in Q1. What’s more, there are further signs that the slowdown is being driven as much by... 20th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does the Cypriot bail-out deal mean for Russia? Russia’s financial markets have taken fright this morning following the announcement of details of the Cypriot bail-out, which looks set to hit Russian deposits there hard. But despite the fact that... 18th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian policymakers still waiting for inflation to fall The high rate of inflation continues to prevent the Central Bank of Russia from easing policy to support the slowing economy. But with inflation now close to peaking, interest rate cuts are possible... 15th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update First thoughts on Russia's new central bank governor The decision by President Putin to nominate his economic advisor, Elvira Nabiullina, to be the next governor of the Central Bank of Russia is a blow to hopes for a more independent monetary policy... 12th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Market rally losing steam The rally in Emerging Europe’s financial markets has lost steam over the past few weeks. In part, this is due to the re-surfacing of tensions in the euro-zone following Italy’s inconclusive general... 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian inflation close to peaking Inflation in Russia rose to an 18-month high of 7.3% y/y in February but is now close to peaking. As it falls back over the coming months, interest rates are likely to be cut. Nonetheless, the room... 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
