Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q3 2025) …
18th August 2025
Our China Activity Proxy shows that China’s activity growth remains well below what official figures suggest. While industrial activity has held up surprisingly well in the face of US tariffs, the services sector has weakened substantially since the start …
24th July 2025
Our China Activity Proxy suggests growth slowed further in May, with US tariffs weighing on industrial activity. While services growth did pick up, that seems to have been driven by a temporary boost from the consumer goods trade-in scheme. We expect …
24th June 2025
Our China Activity Proxy suggests that the economy’s growth slowed in April. But, so far, US tariffs seem to have had a bigger impact on consumer sentiment than industrial activity, with rerouting and renminbi depreciation helping to offset the fall in …
28th May 2025
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q2 2025) …
15th May 2025
Our China Activity Proxy calls into question the consensus view, based on the official GDP figures, that China’s economy remained resilient at the start of this year. Despite some improvement in March, the CAP suggests that growth last quarter slipped …
29th April 2025
Our China Activity Proxy suggests that China’s economy slowed over January and February, driven by a sharp slowdown in services sector growth. Fiscal expenditure is set to pick up over the coming months, but that will largely be offset by the drag from US …
24th March 2025
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q1 2025) …
19th February 2025
Our China Activity Proxy suggests that activity picked up in December, but that was only enough to drive a modest uptick over Q4 as a whole. The CAP indicates that the economy grew by just 4.4% in 2024, well below the official figure of 5.0%. As a result …
28th January 2025
Our China Activity Proxy suggests that activity growth slowed in November. That was partly driven by a slowdown in fiscal support, reflected in weaker services activity in particular. But industrial activity also slowed on the back of weakening exports. …
31st December 2024
Our Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes. All projections in this publication are as of 29th November 2024. We publish more detailed explanation of our views in our annual Long Run Asset …
3rd December 2024
We’re launching an updated version of our China Activity Proxy this month, alongside an interactive dashboard that gives clients access to the data. Our expanded model suggests that China’s growth so far this year has been weaker than we originally …
27th November 2024
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q4 2024) …
25th November 2024
Our China Activity Proxy suggests that the economy’s growth picked up in September, bringing Q3 growth in-line with official estimates. While this acceleration was broad-based across sectors, the main driver was financial services activity which was …
29th October 2024
The valuations of “risky” assets continued to rise in the third quarter, both in absolute terms and relative to “safe” asset yields. We think that reflects the start of the Fed’s easing cycle and renewed optimism about the US economy after initial worries …
10th October 2024
Our China Activity Proxy suggests that growth slowed in August, with construction seeing the sharpest deceleration. Alongside today’s monetary easing, an uptick in fiscal spending will help keep the economy afloat over the rest of this year, but it won’t …
24th September 2024
Our China Activity Proxy suggests that activity growth edged up in July thanks to a ramp-up in fiscal spending. Policy support will continue to drive a cyclical recovery over the coming months. But once support starts to fade and export growth weakens, …
29th August 2024
Our China Activity Proxy suggests that the economy has lost some steam recently with weak domestic demand weighing on activity. Alongside recent rate cuts, policymakers have signalled that fiscal support will be ramped up soon, which should provide a …
30th July 2024
The valuations of “risky” assets have continued to rise, both in absolute terms and relative to “safe” asset yields. We think that reflects the inflation of a bubble in stock markets, itself a consequence of growing enthusiasm about AI technology. But our …
12th July 2024
Our China Activity Proxy suggests that economic momentum remains reasonably robust, fuelled by continued gains in manufacturing and a further recovery in services activity. A step-up in fiscal support and new property support measures may continue to …
30th May 2024
This is a revamped version of our quarterly Financial Risk Monitor to include commentary and analysis of our latest EM risk indicators. EM risks ease further, but fiscal risks remain acute Higher US bond yields and a stronger dollar have put some EM …
30th April 2024
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests the economy saw a healthy expansion in March, driven by the continued strength of industry. While we think that fiscal support will keep fuelling the economy in the near-term, structural headwinds will start to drag …
24th April 2024
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economy has performed reasonably well over the last few months – better than much recent commentary would suggest. We expect activity growth to slow later this year as policy support fades. The CAP is our …
27th March 2024
The valuations of “risky” assets have kept rising so far this year, even as “safe” asset yields have rebounded. While risky asset valuations are quite high by past standards, we doubt this will prevent equities from rising a lot further this year and …
21st March 2024
The US dollar has risen against most currencies since the start of the year, while most of our estimates of the greenback’s “fair value” are little unchanged. Taken together, this leaves the dollar somewhat overvalued in our assessment. At this point, we …
15th March 2024
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that economic output ended 2023 above the high it reached before growth spluttered in the middle of the year. With policy support still flowing, a further recovery is likely in the near-term. But we think momentum …
23rd January 2024
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economic recovery is continuing as the service sector makes up further lost ground. With policy support still flowing and consumers feeling less downbeat, further gains are likely in the near-term, but …
20th December 2023
The valuations of “risky” assets have recovered somewhat lately as “safe” asset yields have tumbled. While we suspect any slowdown in global growth could put risky asset valuations back under pressure in the near term, we think the big picture is that …
19th December 2023
Property yields rose across all sectors in Q3, but this was offset by a sharp rise in alternative asset yields towards the end of the quarter. As a result, all sectors saw a deterioration in valuations, which pushed the retail sector back into the …
6th December 2023
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q4 2023) …
23rd November 2023
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) shows that the economy was still making headway last month, though it appears to have lost some steam. Downside risks continue to linger, particularly in the property sector. But we think policy support will keep the …
20th November 2023
Our Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes. All projections in this publication are as of 1st November 2023. Our latest projections have been influenced by the recent body of work that we’ve done …
2nd November 2023
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth slowed in Q3. But the economy was regaining momentum at the end of the quarter, led by gains in the service sector. With stimulus still flowing, this recovery should continue over the coming quarters. …
25th October 2023
12th October 2023
The valuations of “risky” assets have only been undermined a little by the big rise in the yields of “safe” assets in recent months. We think that the valuations of risky assets may fall a bit more in the near term, as growth falters. But further ahead …
2nd October 2023
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that, after a period of stagnation, China’s economy has returned to growth recently, with output finally surpassing its previous high in August. Policy support is being stepped up, which should underpin a further …
20th September 2023
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that China’s economy regained some ground in July, following a contraction in June. But the big picture is that output has levelled off recently and that the economy could tip into a downward spiral unless policy …
29th August 2023
Property yields rose across all sectors in Q2. However, for the retail sector this was offset by rises in the 10-year treasury yield. Consequently retail saw a small decline in valuations, whereas valuations in the other sectors improved. That said, both …
25th August 2023
Our latest Europe commercial property valuation monitor is embedded below: Property yields rose across all sectors and markets in Q2. However, this was somewhat offset by rises in bond yields in most countries. As a result, valuations remain stretched in …
23rd August 2023
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that China’s economy contracted in June as the service sector spluttered. Policy support means the economy should return to growth before long. But the pace of future expansion will be more modest than in the past. …
27th July 2023
The continued rise in the valuations of “risky” assets relative to “safe” ones mostly seems to reflect growing confidence in the economic outlook. We think that optimism will be disappointed and that risk premia may rise again – and valuations may fall – …
26th July 2023
While the US dollar has fallen against most currencies since the start of the year, our estimates of the greenback’s “fair value” are broadly unchanged, leaving it only somewhat overvalued in our assessment. The valuations of most G10 currencies …
21st July 2023
Our Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes. All projections in this publication are as of 7th July 2023. We publish more detailed explanation of our views in our annual Long Run Asset Allocation …
11th July 2023
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that China’s economy stagnated in May as the tailwind from reopening fizzled out. We think officials will roll out sufficient policy support to keep the recovery alive but not enough to prevent subdued …
26th June 2023
Financial risks across the major EMs look relatively well contained for the time being but there are some areas of weakness. Most immediately, following President Erdogan’s election victory the prospect of continued unorthodox policymaking in Turkey …
31st May 2023
European property valuations continued to improve in Q1 on the back of further increases in property yields as well as falls in government bond yields. Nonetheless, all office and industrial markets aside from Istanbul remained overvalued. Indeed, we …
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) shows that, despite losing some momentum, the economic recovery was still making progress at the start of Q2. And we think there is still scope for further improvement, especially in the service sector. The CAP is our …
29th May 2023
Our commercial property valuation scores rose sharply in Q1, suggesting that Q3 2022 was a trough in valuations. Office and retail sectors now look fairly valued. While we think retail values do not have much further to fall, concerns about the outlook …
26th May 2023
While banking sector strains have become less acute over recent weeks, core money markets remain tense as uncertainty grows around the potential fallout from even a temporary default on US Treasuries. Despite the recent failure of First Republic and …
18th May 2023
Following a surge in property yields over the second half of last year, property moved closer to fair value again in Q1. Admittedly, on our measure the all-property score is still sitting in overvalued territory. (See Chart 1.) But that is largely due …
17th May 2023
