US Housing Market Rapid Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Sep. 2023) Another large monthly gain in house prices in September suggests that the extremely limited supply of existing homes for sale continued to outstrip the drag on demand from high mortgage rates. This... 28th November 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response New Home Sales (Oct. 2023) New home sales reversed most of their rise in the previous month as mortgage rates spiked to 8%. However, we don’t think this marks an end to the strength in new homes sales. That’s because the supply... 27th November 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Falling mortgage rates won't spark major recovery Housing market activity is likely to recover from here, driven by falling mortgage rates. That said, they are set to remain high relative to recent history. Our view is that mortgage rates won’t drop... 21st November 2023 · 15 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Existing Home Sales (Oct. 2023) Existing home sales fell sharply to a fresh 13-year low in October as the 8% peak in mortgage rates in the same month caused buyers and sellers to withdraw from the market. Mortgage applications for... 21st November 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Housing Starts (Oct. 2023) With homebuilders encouraged by the recent surge in buyers entering the new homes market due to a lack of existing inventory, housing starts and permits edged slightly higher in October. 17th November 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Oct. 23) The past prices balance remained deeply negative in October contradicting the 1% m/m increases in house prices recorded by both Halifax and Nationwide. But a recovery in buyer enquiries suggests the... 8th November 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Mortgage Applications (Oct. 2023) After their weakest month in 28 years, there were signs that mortgage applications for home purchase bottomed out at the end of October. Mortgage applications for home purchase dropped 9.1% m/m across... 8th November 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Further sharp drop in house prices unlikely The rise in house prices in October was a challenge to our long-held view that high borrowing costs will cause them to drop further. The resilience of prices in part reflects longer mortgage terms... 7th November 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update More pain to come for first-time buyers The rise in the US homeownership rate has stalled, driven by a drop in the proportion of under-35s that own their home. That’s down to higher mortgage rates reducing the number of first-time buyers... 2nd November 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Aug. 2023) Another large gain in house prices in August suggests that the extremely limited supply of existing homes for sale continued to outweigh high mortgage rates. We think monthly gains in house prices... 31st October 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Raising our mortgage rate forecasts Our new higher forecasts for US Treasury yields mean that mortgage rates won’t fall as quickly as we previously predicted. While we still expect mortgage rates to decline they are unlikely to fall... 26th October 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response New Home Sales (Sep. 2023) Extraordinarily limited supply in the existing homes market continued to drive buyers to new homes in September. The 12.4% m/m rise in new home sales in September took them to 759,000 annualised... 25th October 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Effectiveness of Mortgage Guarantee varies by region The proposed extension to the Mortgage Guarantee Scheme could prove a good counter-cyclical policy in areas where house prices are relatively low. But the scheme has far less impact in London and the... 25th October 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Existing Home Sales (Sep. 2023) Existing home sales fell to their lowest level since October 2010 in September as the increase in mortgage rates to a fresh 23-year high caused buyers and sellers to withdraw from the market. A... 19th October 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update What are house prices really doing? House prices are rising according to the Office for National Statistics but falling according to Halifax and Nationwide. Consistent downward revisions to the ONS House Price Index mean that we think... 19th October 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Housing Starts (Sep. 2023) Single-family starts edged higher in September to 963,000 annualised from 933,000 in August and building permits also rose to a 15-month high. However, we don’t think this means single-family... 18th October 2023 · 2 mins read
