US Economics Update Falling margins to help bring inflation down The recent undershooting of CPI used vehicle prices relative to wholesale auction prices appears, at least partly, to reflect a squeeze on dealer margins as demand has cooled. The upshot is that we... 19th April 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Why is inflation higher in the UK? Inflation in the UK has stayed higher than elsewhere as the UK has endured the worst of both worlds – a big energy shock (like the euro-zone) and labour shortages (even worse than the US). Admittedly... 19th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Taking stock of our Treasury and S&P 500 forecasts We think investors’ expectations for the Fed funds rate will fall a little by the end of this year, which will push the 10-year Treasury yield a bit lower by end-2023. But we doubt lower “risk-free”... 19th April 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) Plunging energy price inflation will soon drag down CPI inflation more significantly, but the stubbornness of core inflation suggests that the fight against inflation is lasting longer than the... 19th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) Base effects helped to pull headline inflation lower in March, but there were also encouraging signs in core inflation, as the average three-month annualised gain in CPI-trim and CPI-median fell to a... 18th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Focus Introducing our new financial conditions indices (FCIs) We have revamped our financial conditions indices (FCIs) for DM economies. This document sets out a framework for analysing financial conditions, explains our methodology, presents and interprets our... 18th April 2023 · 20 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Feb./Mar.) The labour market became a bit less tight in February and wage growth continued to ease, albeit slowly. That leaves the Bank of England with a tough call on whether to raise interest rates further... 18th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: How tight are financial conditions in the wake of the bank turmoil? 20th April 2023, 3:00PM BST As the dust settles on March’s banking sector turmoil, there’s intensifying focus on how credit is being affected by heightened fear.
Asset Allocation Update A tale of two listed real estate markets While US equity REITs are a long way from discounting the “best of times” for US commercial real estate (CRE) over the coming quarters, listed real estate stocks in Europe appear braced for something... 17th April 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Bank stress tests to leave some questions unanswered Recent events have highlighted that meeting regulatory capital and liquidity requirements does not guarantee that banks will be financially stable. The forthcoming EU bank stress test results should... 17th April 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Shift towards cheaper homes challenges statisticians The divergence between the Nationwide and Halifax House Price Indices of late has cast some doubt on the direction of house prices. A struggle to adjust the statistics for a shift towards cheaper... 17th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Macklem pushes back against rate cut expectations Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem used his press conference this week to push back against expectations for interest rate cuts later this year. That partly reflects the Bank’s less downbeat... 14th April 2023 · 6 mins read
