Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Feb 2026) The further moderation in core inflation in February joins last month’s weak Labour Force Survey as reason to think the Bank of Canada will not move to hike rates anytime soon despite the evolving... 16th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Energy shortages rippling through Australian supply chains With supplies of crude oil from the Gulf dwindling, local prices of petroleum products imported from the Asia-Pacific region have already risen more sharply than movements in crude oil prices would... 16th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Is the economy tipping into recession? The weakness in activity in January and the labour market in February leaves GDP at risk of a second consecutive quarterly contraction. However, temporary factors are seemingly to blame, as the recent... 13th March 2026 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed unlikely to overreact to inflation resurgence We don't expect the Fed to overreact to the resurgence in its preferred PCE inflation measure given it partly reflects the outsized weighting of particular items and there is still plenty of... 13th March 2026 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Jan) The weakness in GDP growth at the end of last year was more severe than initially thought but, given the government shutdown appears to have been a significant drag, we anticipate a strong rebound in... 13th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Feb 2026) The rebound in the unemployment rate to 6.7% in February supports our view that, despite the surge in oil prices, the Bank of Canada will be reluctant to discuss a potential return to rate hikes this... 13th March 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Middle East conflict already hurting the UK economy The rises in petrol prices and mortgage rates show that the new stagflationary pressures we previously warned about due to the conflict in the Middle East have arrived. We think the Bank of England... 13th March 2026 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Jan. 2026) With GDP not rising at all in January, it is clear the economy was subdued even before the leap in energy prices triggered by the Middle East conflict. We previously thought GDP growth would be 1.0%... 13th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Hauser’s hawkishness heralds a hike In a podcast this week, RBA Deputy Governor made no bones about his view that the Bank needed to bolster its inflation-fighting credentials. His concerns that the Iran conflict could exacerbate price... 13th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Government cushioning blow from energy shock Japan’s government is capping gasoline prices at levels below last year’s average and is also releasing crude oil from stockpiles to prevent shortages. However, should crude oil prices rise much... 13th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Limited signs of distress in financial markets amid Iran War While the outbreak of the war in the Middle East has led to a surge in volatility across most major asset classes, there are limited signs of distress in core money markets. That may change if the war... 12th March 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Mar. 2026) The impact of the conflict in the Middle East on energy markets and the UK economy remains highly uncertain. As things stand, we suspect the most likely scenario is one in which the conflict comes to... 12th March 2026 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank of Canada to stand pat amid oil market turmoil The Bank of Canada is all but certain to keep interest rates unchanged next week and will likely play down the risk that higher oil prices might warrant interest rate hikes. Nonetheless, if WTI... 12th March 2026 · 7 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed on hold as it waits for more clarity With the FOMC set to keep the fed funds target range between 3.50% and 3.75% next week, the focus will be on any changes to the policy statement and new economic projections. The most hawkish outcome... 12th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily S&P 500 sector implications of the surge in oil prices The relative resilience of the S&P 500’s ‘big-tech’ sectors since the US and Israel attacked Iran is a stark contrast to their underperformance when oil prices surged in 2022. It might reflect... 12th March 2026 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Jan. 2026) Gold, pharmaceuticals and IT equipment were once again the main drivers behind moves in the trade deficit in January, while limited revisions to preceding months’ figures suggest little change to... 12th March 2026 · 2 mins read
