US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Dec. 2025) We judge that the recent strength in AI-related investment marks the start of a multi-year capex boom. We expect GDP growth to be 2.5% in both 2026 and 2027. While labour demand remains soft , the... 23rd December 2025 · 0 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Oct. & Nov. 2025) The rise in industrial production in November looks less impressive with a peek at the breakdown, which shows manufacturing output flat last month, and considering the move simply reverses a fall in... 23rd December 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US GDP (Q3 Initial) The 4.3% annualised gain in third-quarter GDP was well above the consensus estimate at 3.3%, but broadly in line with our own 4.5% estimate. A lot of other forecasters missed that this is essentially... 23rd December 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Oct) The weakness of GDP over October and November raises the chance that GDP will contract in the fourth quarter. Even accounting for the effect of strikes in various service sectors, that weakness... 23rd December 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Will food inflation fall in DMS next year? Food CPI inflation has been elevated in several advanced economies in recent months, namely Japan, the UK and Canada, but we expect price pressures to ease in most cases. A combination of lower... 22nd December 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Q3 2025 Final) Although GDP growth was unrevised at 0.1% q/q in Q3, the shape of growth is a bit healthier and less reliant on the public sector than the first estimate suggested. That said, the economy is still... 22nd December 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Distorted data makes it hard to read the macro tea leaves The final full week of the year delivered a smorgasbord of shutdown-affected data releases, some fresher than others and some downright rotten. We doubt this new batch of data will have any major... 19th December 2025 · 9 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Existing Home Sales (Nov. 2025) Existing home sales rose to a nine-month high of 4.13m annualised in November and should climb further in the coming months, as deals agreed when borrowing costs fell in the third quarter continue to... 19th December 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly 2026 – Key themes and possible surprises We think 2026 will be the year inflation finally falls to the 2.0% target prompting the Bank of England to cut interest rates further than most expect, from 3.75% now to 3.00%. This final Weekly of... 19th December 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly No sign of labour shortages despite falling population Despite the record decline in population in the third quarter, lower immigration does not appear to be leading to labour shortages. That provides some support to our view that the Bank of Canada will... 19th December 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Oct. 2025) The sizeable fall in core retail sales in October chimes with weak consumer confidence, although large temporary drivers in either direction are partly to blame. While the solid advance estimate for... 19th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ signals additional rate hikes are in the pipeline When the Bank of Japan delivered a much-anticipated 25bp hike at its meeting today, it signalled a willingness to tighten policy further. With wage-price dynamics set to remain favourable, we expect... 19th December 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales & Public Finances (Nov. 2025) November’s retail sales and public finances data reveal some tentative signs of improvement, but both are coming too late to make much difference to retailers in the so-called “Golden Quarter” and for... 19th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Bank of Japan Meeting (Dec. 2025) The Bank of Japan’s decision to raise interest rates at its meeting today was clearly signalled ahead of time and therefore came as no surprise. Crucially, however, the Board’s hawkish messaging... 19th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly New Zealand’s economy isn’t in the clear just yet Following a strong rebound in the New Zealand economy in Q3, financial markets are increasingly pricing in the start of a new RBNZ tightening cycle in the months ahead. However, we remain sceptical... 19th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (November 2025) With inflation still running hot, the Bank of Japan is certain to resume its tightening cycle at its meeting later today. Moreover, we think there’s a compelling case for the Bank to lift rates... 19th December 2025 · 2 mins read
