US Rapid Response US International Trade (Jul. 2025) A resurgence in gold imports partly explains the widening of the trade deficit in July. Exports were flat, but a weaker dollar and negligible tariff retaliation abroad should support them in the... 4th September 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Prime central London house prices to continue to lag behind After falling by 16% from their 2021 peak to their recent trough in March, prime central London (PCL) house prices have risen in each of the three months to June. But with prime buyers less reliant on... 4th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Household Spending Indicator (Jul. 25) With the Australian consumer springing back into action, the case for aggressive policy easing is becoming weaker. 4th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update World trade on course to soften rather than slump The slowdown in world goods trade since Q1 has been largely due to the reversal of tariff front-running. But the latest data show that world trade has so far not slumped in the wake of tariffs. And... 3rd September 2025 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Mortgage Applications (Aug. 2025) Lower borrowing costs sparked a small rebound in home purchase mortgage applications in August, lending support to our view that existing home sales will see a modest lift in the second half of what... 3rd September 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia GDP (Q2 2025) Activity rebounded strongly in Q2, and for all the right reasons. The pickup in domestic demand raises the risks that the RBA won’t loosen policy as aggressively as we’re predicting. 3rd September 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Japan will continue to shrug off global trade tensions GDP growth will slow from its current above-trend rate to a more sustainable pace as external demand softens. However, with consumption growth still healthy and underlying inflation set to remain... 3rd September 2025 · 17 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show signs of improvement in global industry The latest PMIs suggest that global industry has been fairly resilient in the wake of US tariffs so far and may already be past the worst. Meanwhile, goods price pressures remain much stronger in the... 2nd September 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update The implications of the Court of Appeals ruling on tariffs In the wake of the Court of Appeals’ decision upholding a lower court finding that Trump exceeded his executive powers by imposing sweeping universal and reciprocal tariffs, this Update answers key... 2nd September 2025 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Aug 2025) The bounce in the ISM manufacturing new orders index in August suggests that, although the manufacturing sector is still struggling, it may now be turning a corner. 2nd September 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Which taxes could (and should) the UK Chancellor raise? If the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, is going to continue to meet her fiscal rule with a buffer of £9.9bn, she will probably have to raise £18-28bn in the Autumn Budget, mostly via higher taxes. We... 2nd September 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update How much will the UK Chancellor need to raise in the Budget? Our latest estimate suggests the Chancellor will need to raise £18-28bn in the Budget to avoid breaking her fiscal rules and to maintain her £9.9bn buffer. With Labour MPs not amenable to spending... 2nd September 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update How crucial is central bank independence? President Trump’s attempt to fire Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors has revived a broader debate about the value of central bank independence. The strength of the evidence in... 2nd September 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Focus Profits will hold up better than the Bank of Japan expects While the Bank of Japan is worried that trade tensions will weigh on profits, business investment and wage growth, profits have in fact held up well so far and we expect that to remain the case going... 2nd September 2025 · 16 mins read
UK Economics Update Prop to UK inflation from linked prices will fade Even though the components of inflation that are directly linked to past inflation rates have played a big role in the recent rebound in CPI inflation, we think their influence will fade over the next... 1st September 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Jul. 2025) July’s money and lending data show that interest rate cuts are yet to significantly boost economic activity and that the prospect of tax hikes in the Autumn Budget may be making households a bit more... 1st September 2025 · 3 mins read
