Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q3 2025) Although headline inflation rose to the top of the RBNZ's 1-3% target band last quarter, the Bank will put more emphasis on the fact that core inflation remained well-behaved. Accordingly, we still... 19th October 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed on autopilot through shutdown fog Comments from Chair Powell and various other FOMC participants confirm the federal funds rate will be lowered again later this month in spite of the recent rebound in surveyed hiring intentions. We... 17th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Small businesses sounding the alarm The slump in the CFIB Business Barometer this month leaves it consistent with a renewed decline in GDP. With firms’ inflation expectations under control, that adds weight to our view that the Bank of... 17th October 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Is this peak inflation? If we’re right in expecting Wednesday’s release to reveal that CPI inflation jumped to more than double the 2.0% target in September, then the UK’s reputation for controlling inflation will be... 17th October 2025 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to cut in November as labour market cools RBA officials have recently been downplaying the potential for further rate cuts. However, we believe their hawkish pivot won't last. Indeed, the surge in the jobless rate to a four-year high in... 17th October 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Conditions for carry trade set to turn less favourable. We think after a period of sustained outperformance, total returns in high-yielding EM currencies relative to funding currencies will be weaker in the next couple of years. In particular, we forecast... 16th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Oct. 2025) The weakness in the MLS House Price Index in September was largely due to a decline in Toronto, where there is little sign of a turnaround in sight. That presents a risk to our view that the... 16th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Oct. 2025) While the economy appears to be narrowly avoiding recession, we expect GDP growth to average less than 1% annualised over the second half of the year, with the unemployment rate rising toward 7.3%... 16th October 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily How the AI boom is concentrating S&P 500 earnings growth As the US Q3 reporting season gets underway, here’s a sobering observation: the ‘big-tech’ sectors – information technology, communication services, and consumer discretionary – have accounted for... 16th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The future still looks bright for US diversified banks We think the outlook for US diversified banks is sunny, given the prospects for bonds and the economy. 16th October 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Aug. 2025) The meagre rise in real GDP in August suggests growth is still being hampered by high interest rates, higher taxes and soft overseas activity. With business sentiment on the floor and employment still... 16th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Lower BoJ profits not a major drag on public finances If we’re right that the Bank of Japan will lift its policy rate to 1.5% by 2027, its net interest income will turn negative over the next couple of years. However, its overall net income should remain... 16th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Sep. 2025) The marked loosening of the labour market last month bolsters the case for the RBA to cut rates by 25bp at its meeting in November. Even so, the decision will probably come down to the wire, given the... 16th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Aug. 2025) The August manufacturing and wholesale sales data were not as bad as feared, and suggest that despite the 1.0% m/m fall, the tentative manufacturing recovery that we’ve seen since June hasn’t... 15th October 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Is this the start of a sharp slowdown in the UK housing market? Concerns over possible tax rises in the Budget on 26th November, higher mortgage rates and the weak jobs market have left the housing market paralysed. We doubt this is the start of a sharp slowdown... 14th October 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Aug./Sep. 2025) The modest further falls in both payroll employment and job vacancies in September suggest that the labour market is loosening, but wage growth is still easing only fairly gradually. This suggests the... 14th October 2025 · 3 mins read
