Europe Economics Focus Europe in a changing world Europe is being buffeted by geopolitical and geoeconomic shifts but, like all things in Europe, the subsequent changes are likely to be slow and deliberate. Europe will “derisk” from China in... 30th May 2025 · 23 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ’s pessimism is facing reality check Firms’ output forecasts suggest that Japanese exporters are benefitting from US demand shifting away from China. And with inflation running miles ahead of the Bank of Japan’s overly pessimistic... 30th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Weak economy will force RBNZ's hand When it cut rates by 25bp this week, the RBNZ indicated that it would take a somewhat cautious approach to policy setting going forward. However, the recent flow of data suggest that New Zealand... 30th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Apr. 2025) Despite the ongoing slump in consumer spending, we’re not convinced the RBA will cut rates as aggressively as markets are anticipating. 30th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Apr. 25) If anything, the April activity data suggest that Japan’s economy is benefitting from trade tensions, which bodes well for our view that the Bank of Japan will hike rates again soon. 30th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Tokyo CPI (May 25) The Tokyo CPI showed a further broad-based acceleration in inflation in inflation, which suggests that the Bank of Japan may hike rate even earlier than our current forecast of October. 30th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (May 2025) The latest data confirm that the world economy got off to a weak start this year. World trade has been one bright spot, as firms attempt to front-run tariffs. But business surveys have softened, and... 29th May 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Spending pressures to lead to higher UK taxes and borrowing U-turns on benefit and welfare spending, increased pressure to ramp up defence spending and higher borrowing costs have left the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, in a sticky position. If she wishes to avoid... 29th May 2025 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily What the US CIT’s tariff ruling means for the markets Despite a positive initial reaction in global stock markets to yesterday’s ruling by the US Court of International Trade (CIT), there is still plenty of uncertainty about future tariffs on US imports... 29th May 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Softening in UK housing market will only be temporary Leading indicators suggest most of the recent weakness in housing demand and prices is due to the temporary influence of the change in stamp duty rather than any longer-lasting influence of the softer... 29th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (May 2025) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Although continued trade tensions have heightened economic uncertainty, they have had only a modest... 29th May 2025 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (May 2025) We suspect most of the recent weakness in housing demand and prices is due to the temporary influence of the rise in stamp duty on 1st April rather than any longer-lasting influence from the softer... 29th May 2025 · 1 min read
Bonds Update Calm after the bond market storm The recent substantial volatility in global sovereign bond markets hasn’t altered our view that in most cases 10-year government bond yields will end this year near, or below, their current levels. We... 29th May 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Court ruling adds another layer of uncertainty to Trump's tariffs The ruling by the three-judge panel of the Federal Court of International Trade blocking President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs will presumably be appealed by the administration all the way to the... 29th May 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (May 6-7) The minutes of the Fed’s early-May policy meeting were, on balance, slightly hawkish. In particular, “almost all participants commented on the risk that inflation could prove to be more persistent... 28th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch BoC to cut despite high core inflation We suspect the Bank of Canada will be more concerned by the weakness in the labour market than the rise in core inflation in April, so we are sticking to our view that the Bank will cut its policy... 28th May 2025 · 7 mins read
