US Economics Focus Tariff impact on inflation slowly building Up to now there has been only limited passthrough from tariffs into final consumer prices, but we still expect the impact to gradually mount in the second half of this year. Many retailers appear to... 25th July 2025 · 12 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders (Jun. 2025) Ignore the large 9.3% m/m drop in durable goods orders in June, which reflects a reversal of May’s surge of aircraft orders from the Qatar Airways Boeing deal announced during President Trump's visit... 25th July 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Jun. 2025) The disappointingly small rebound in retail sales in June supports our view that the economy grew by only 0.1% q/q in Q2 and means that the risks to our forecast for consumer spending to grow by 1.4%... 25th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA’s gradualism poses upside risks to rates The minutes of the RBA's July meeting showed that the Board remains reluctant to declare victory in the war on inflation – a sentiment reiterated by Governor Bullock in a speech this week. We suspect... 25th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Trade deal strengthens case for further BoJ tightening Japan managed to secure a reduction in US vehicle tariffs with minimal concessions of its own. While that could eventually prompt Trump to renege on his promises, as things stand the trade deal has... 25th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (May 2025) The flash estimate showing a solid rise in retail sales in June, paired with the recent rebound in consumer confidence, suggests the decline in sales in May was more a reflection of demand normalising... 24th July 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Jul. 2025) July’s flash PMIs paint a picture of the economy struggling to recover from a spring lull, a labour market that is still weakening and price pressures that are continuing to ease. This should reassure... 24th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (July 2025) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Australia’s economy is struggling to gain momentum, while the recent rebound in activity in New... 24th July 2025 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Your questions on Japan answered We held an online Drop-In session yesterday to discuss the latest developments in Japan’s economy and financial markets. This Update answers several of the questions that we received. 24th July 2025 · 7 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch October rate hike looking increasingly likely The trade deal agreed upon between the US and Japan has removed a key downside risk and the Bank of Japan will probably present a more upbeat assessment of the economic outlook at next week's meeting... 24th July 2025 · 8 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Trade deal negotiations give cause for BoC to wait The recent rebound in core inflation and improved timely activity indicators will prompt the Bank of Canada to keep rates on hold at 2.75% next week – not least given policymakers will also want to... 23rd July 2025 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update No single tariff playbook for central banks While higher tariffs will cause some Asian economies to pursue slightly looser monetary policy than otherwise, domestic factors will be the key driving force behind rate decisions in most economies in... 23rd July 2025 · 4 mins read
US Fed Watch US Fed Watch: Holding the (hawkish) line Despite calls within the FOMC for a rate cut at next week’s policy meeting, we expect the hawks to prevail – with tariff uncertainty still too elevated for the Fed to justify a policy shift, while the... 23rd July 2025 · 8 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (July 2025) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Japan’s economy has largely shrugged off global trade tensions and the trade deal reached between... 23rd July 2025 · 1 min read
Japan Rapid Response Trade deal points to resumption of BoJ tightening cycle this year The trade deal with the US announced today removes a key downside risk to Japan’s economy. And while the potential resignation of PM Ishiba creates political risks, our conviction that the Bank of... 23rd July 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Jun. 2025) Despite the £3.6bn overshoot in June, public borrowing is still in line with the OBR’s forecasts for the first three months of the 2025/26 fiscal year. But things will probably get worse for the... 22nd July 2025 · 3 mins read
