Global Economics Update PMIs point to stagflationary impact of tariffs The latest flash PMIs suggest that tariffs and trade policy uncertainty weighed on activity and confidence in most DMs at the start of Q2 and boosted price pressures in the US. 23rd April 2025 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US New Home Sales (Mar. 2025) Lower mortgage rates drove a sharp rise in new home sales in March, showing that the market still has solid momentum despite inventory creeping up in the resale segment. However, with mortgage rates... 23rd April 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Apr. 2025) The marked fall in the composite PMI in April raises the chances that the uncertainty stemming from the US tariffs chaos will be a bigger drag on the UK economy than we previously anticipated. That... 23rd April 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Mar. 2025) March’s public finances figures showed that public borrowing was overshooting the OBR’s forecast even before the influence from the tariff chaos is felt. This raises the chances that if the Chancellor... 23rd April 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Trade war not weighing on business confidence The available business surveys show that confidence hasn’t weakened after Liberation Day. However, with price pressures coming off the boil, the Bank of Japan will continue to tighten policy only... 23rd April 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Flash PMIs (Apr. 2025) 23rd April 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Firing Powell would just be the beginning of the Fed's end If President Donald Trump does fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, we suspect that the initial market reaction might not be disastrous, as long as Trump quickly lines up a relatively-qualified replacement... 21st April 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Bank holds off on further loosening awaiting trade clarity While the Bank of Canada held rates steady at 2.75% this week - despite markets pricing in roughly 50% odds of a 25bp cut - it balanced this out by striking a mostly dovish tone in its communications... 17th April 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: The American consumer rises again The positive retail sales data for March released this week means we now believe that real consumption grew by 1.0% annualised in the first quarter, pushing our Q1 GDP forecast back into positive... 17th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Would an equity crash spell disaster for the economy? The latest sell-off in equities is still a long way from the scale of those market corrections which coincided with recessions in the past. As things stand, the ~14% fall in the S&P 500 since February... 17th April 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: It’s no longer all about services CPI inflation We’ve become more convinced that the new US tariff regime will reduce inflation in the UK, not least because there are some early signs that goods originally destined for the US are being “dumped” in... 17th April 2025 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA won’t cut nearly as far as the RBNZ Markets remain optimistic that the RBA will cut its cash rate from 4.1% at present to below 3% by year-end. But with the labour market still tight and activity starting to rebound, we're sticking to... 17th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Mr Akazawa goes to Washington While the Bank of Japan will probably cut its forecasts for GDP growth at its May meeting, we still expect the Bank to signal confidence in meeting its 2% inflation target on a sustained basis. Indeed... 17th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Mar. 2025) 17th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q1 2025) 17th April 2025 · 2 mins read
