Japan Economics Update BoJ will lift rates to 2% by end-2027 The Bank of Japan hiked its policy rate to a three decade high today and signalled less concern about downside risks to activity resulting from the Iran War. With inflation set to pick up as higher... 16th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA leaves door ajar for further tightening While the Reserve Bank of Australia predictably left rates unchanged today, it clearly signalled that it was far too early for it to declare victory in its battle against inflation. With underlying... 16th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (June 2026) The Reserve Bank of Australia retained policy optionality when it kept rates unchanged at its meeting today. Our base case remains that the Bank’s tightening cycle has a little further to run. 16th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Bank of Japan Meeting (June 26) The Bank of Japan lifted its policy rate to a three decade high today and we expect the Bank to accelerate the pace of tightening over the coming months. 16th June 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (May 2026) The weaker-than-expected unchanged manufacturing output reading in May suggests the sector is not entirely immune to elevated oil prices, despite the structural tailwind from the AI buildout... 15th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Apr 2026) The 1.8% m/m rise in manufacturing sales volumes in April was not solely down to the oil sector, feeding the narrative that a nascent recovery in the manufacturing sector is underway and supporting... 15th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly BoC unlikely to kick off hiking cycle this year The dovish communications from the Bank of Canada this week, as well as hopes that a US-Iran peace deal is just round the corner, suggest the Bank of Canada will keep interest rates unchanged this... 12th June 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly BoE may not follow the crowd, Starmer playing defence An interest rate hold next Thursday looks nailed on and there are good reasons why the Bank of England may not join the central bank hiking club this year. Meanwhile, the political row over defence... 12th June 2026 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A cooling housing market but the RBA’s job isn’t done Australian consumers remain deeply pessimistic, particularly about the housing market, with house price expectations falling to a three-year low and auction clearance rates continuing to weaken. Even... 12th June 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Apr. 2026) April’s 0.1% m/m contraction in real GDP showed the strong start to the year is now faltering. After growing by 0.6% q/q in Q1, we expect GDP to come to a standstill this quarter and next as the hit... 12th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ on track to hike despite Ueda’s absence Following his unexpected hospitalisation, Governor Ueda will miss next week's BoJ meeting. However, with inflation pressures continuing to build, there will almost certainly still be a majority in... 12th June 2026 · 5 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed on hold as Warsh faces a fractious FOMC Kevin Warsh’s first meeting back on the FOMC should be an eventful one, with the new Chair trying to tame a committee that is sounding a lot more hawkish. Indeed, we now judge that the Fed’s next move... 11th June 2026 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (May 2026) The May PPI data brought worse news for the Fed than was the case with the CPI data, with large gains in the portfolio management and airfares components pushing our estimate for the core PCE deflator... 11th June 2026 · 2 mins read
BoE Watch BoE Watch: BoE may not follow the central bank crowd in raising rates A hold on Thursday 18th June looks nailed on and we expect interest rates to stay at 3.75% for the rest of the year. But rate hikes in July and/or September can’t be ruled out. Either way, the... 11th June 2026 · 7 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (May 2026) While May’s RICS housing market survey shows that the worst of the falls in buyer sentiment may be in the past, a number of leading indicators continue to suggest that the risks to our forecast for... 11th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada to remain on hold this year The slightly dovish shift in language from the Bank of Canada today provides support to our forecast that it will leave interest rates unchanged this year. 10th June 2026 · 3 mins read
