US Rapid Response US International Trade (Mar. 2026) The modest widening of the trade deficit in March, despite another solid rise in goods exports, was less about insatiable AI-driven demand for computer hardware than in recent months, and more about a... 5th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Mar. 2026) The oil-price-driven improvement in Canada’s goods trade balance in March overstates the health of the export sector, with total export volumes falling despite a big rise in the volatile gold sector... 5th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA hikes again, but sees risks as more two-sided The RBA’s decision to hike rates again at its meeting today came as little surprise. In her post-meeting press conference, Governor Bullock argued that with policy settings mildly restrictive again... 5th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (May 2026) Given the potential for incoming inflation data to surprise to the upside of the RBA’s expectations, we think further policy tightening remains likely. 5th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Household Spending (Mar./Q1 2026) With household spending holding up well in the face of the oil price shock, the RBA is unlikely to have major qualms about tightening policy further. 5th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank could still thread the (narrowing) policy needle We still see scope for the Bank of Canada to stall rate hikes until early next year given the looming CUSMA renegotiation and lack of major fiscal stimulus. However, with global oil benchmarks back... 1st May 2026 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Unpacking a landmark week at the Fed A landmark week in the history of the Federal Reserve concludes with interest rate expectations little changed. 1st May 2026 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Three key points when swimming in a sea of scenarios Energy prices are currently a bit higher than those incorporated into our baseline scenario and the Bank of England’s scenarios A and B, which increases the chances of the Bank of England raising... 1st May 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Mar. 2026) March’s money and lending figures imply households may be willing to absorb some of the blow to their real incomes caused by the leap in energy prices by borrowing more and saving a smaller share of... 1st May 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Apr. 2026) The surprisingly strong rise in the Nationwide measure of house prices in April shows that house prices have continued to gain momentum despite the falls in consumer confidence and the rise in... 1st May 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Plenty of inflation still in the pipeline for Australia While the pickup in Australia’s inflation rate in Q1 fell short of the analyst consensus, it remains far too high for the RBA’s comfort. Moreover, with the indirect effects of higher energy prices on... 1st May 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The worst is yet to come for Australia’s housing market Australian house prices all but ground to a halt last month. And with affordability set to deteriorate further in the near term, we expect house prices to fall outright before long. Much to the RBA’s... 30th April 2026 · 4 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Jobs growth to stabilise after choppy start to the year After a volatile few months, we estimate non-farm payrolls increased by a softer 55,000 in April, with the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.4%. 30th April 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE on hold for now, but rate hike risks are rising The Bank of England’s further hawkish tilt while leaving interest rates unchanged at 3.75% suggests the chances of near-term rate hikes are rising. If oil prices fall back to about $95pb as in our... 30th April 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US GDP (Q1 2026) The rebound in first-quarter GDP growth was partly driven by the reversal of the earlier government shutdown drag, but final sales to private domestic purchasers (FSPFP) also expanded at a solid 2.5%... 30th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Feb. 2026) GDP growth looks to have rebounded to 1.5% annualised last quarter, in line with the projection in the Bank’s updated Monetary Policy Report (MPR). With the economic backdrop notably improved for a... 30th April 2026 · 3 mins read
