UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances & Retail Sales (May 2026) Retail sales held up surprisingly well in May, but we doubt this resilience will last. Even if the US-Iran deal holds, inflation looks set to rise further (perhaps to about 4.0%) and retail sales will... 19th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ on track to hike, One Nation gains ground The 0.8% q/q rise in New Zealand's GDP in Q1 was flattered by residual seasonality and overstated the economy's underlying momentum. Even so, with the RBNZ increasingly concerned about inflation risks... 19th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (May 26) While the government’s fuel price caps have so far kept a lid on consumer prices, we expect the pass-through of higher energy costs to utilities charges and other goods and services to lift inflation... 19th June 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly The Warsh era begins on a firmly hawkish note Kevin Warsh’s highly anticipated first meeting as Federal Reserve Chair did not fail to live up to expectations. While the promise of significant institutional reform will matter a lot over the months... 18th June 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE talks a good hawkish game, but is unlikely to deliver The Bank of England’s repeated pledge that it is “ready to act as necessary” (i.e. hike interest rates), alongside its decision to keep rates unchanged at 3.75%, was no surprise. But provided the US... 18th June 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (18th Jun. 2026) The Bank of England’s pledge that it is “ready to act as necessary” by hiking interest rates, alongside its decision to keep rates unchanged at 3.75%, was no surprise. But provided the US-Iran deal... 18th June 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Apr./May 2026) Signs that the labour market may be starting to stabilise makes us a bit less confident in our view that second-round effects won’t prevent inflation returning to 2.0% next year. We still think the... 18th June 2026 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Fed opens the door to a hike as soon as September The median projection now points to a clear chance of the FOMC hiking and, with Chair Kevin Warsh stating “we’ve got some work to do on the price stability point”, we continue to expect the Fed to... 17th June 2026 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Policy Announcement (Jun 2026) The median FOMC projection now points to a clear risk of the FOMC hiking this year, but it is likely skewed toward the non-voting hawkish Fed presidents and would probably have pointed to unchanged... 17th June 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (May 2026) The strong rise in retail sales in May was far broader than a price-driven increase in gasoline spending, with sales excluding gasoline and underlying control group sales both rising an impressive 0.7... 17th June 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (May 2026) CPI inflation will still rise over the next six to nine months despite it holding steady at 2.8% in May. But the fall in the oil price ahead of a US-Iran deal means it’s becoming more likely that... 17th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan External Trade (May 26) The continued plunge in petroleum imports in May undermines the BoJ’s view that Japan has been making progress in securing alternative sources of raw materials but that’s unlikely to prevent the Bank... 17th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing Watch (Jun. 2026) The housing market showed firmer signs of improvement in May and, with oil prices dropping back sharply in the past week, there is now a lower chance that the Bank of Canada will be forced to spoil... 16th June 2026 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Housing Starts (May 2026) Looking past the volatility in multifamily starts, the latest batch of data suggest the housing market is just about weathering the latest rise in mortgage rates. 16th June 2026 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Higher inflation baked in regardless of US-Iran deal If the US-Iran deal holds and oil prices remain at their new, lower level, this will swiftly lower fuel inflation. However, this drag on headline inflation would be offset – outside the US, at least –... 16th June 2026 · 4 mins read
