Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Jul. 2025) The increases in manufacturing and wholesale sales in July suggest tentative signs of a recovery in two of the sectors hardest hit by US tariffs. Less encouragingly, new orders fell by 2.2%, while the... 15th September 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed has the green light to cut The August CPI was the last hurdle to the Fed lowering interest rates next week, and without any marked pickup in inflation, a cut looks certain. Despite calls from Trump loyalists for a 50bp move, we... 12th September 2025 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Record high TSX won’t prevent rate cuts The surge in the TSX this year has owed a lot to the strength in gold prices, rather than reflecting domestic economic conditions. Accordingly, the near record high in the TSX this week will have... 12th September 2025 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Sentiment (Sep.) Consumer sentiment fell back to a four-month low of 55.4 in September, from 58.2, as fears over both higher inflation and labour market weakness weighed on households. That leaves the University of... 12th September 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Rising inflation expectations adding to the BoE’s nerves The recent rises in households’ inflation expectations will be making the Bank of England more nervous about the outlook for inflation. This feeds into our new forecast that the Bank will keep... 12th September 2025 · 9 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly LDP to choose a new leader, growth remains healthy PM Ishiba's successor will have to grapple with a politically-challenging environment when they take office early next month. But on the plus side, they will inherit a fairly resilient economy that... 12th September 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Jul. 2025) The stagnation in real GDP in July shows that the economy is still struggling to gain decent momentum in the face of the drag from previous hikes in taxes and possible further tax rises to come in the... 12th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Springtime in the Antipodes New business surveys suggest that economic momentum in Australia will remain solid through the second half of the year. However, we would caution that these surveys have recently overstated the... 12th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank of Japan will resume tightening this year While trade tensions have started to weigh on Japan’s exports, the wider economy has shrugged off these headwinds. With inflation still running hot, we expect the Bank of Japan to leave the door open... 12th September 2025 · 7 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Sep. 2025) A recession should just about be avoided, but the economy is teetering on the edge. We expect GDP growth to average less than 1% annualised over the second half of the year, with the unemployment rate... 11th September 2025 · 0 mins read
US Economics Update Economy is doing better than weak payrolls suggest The news that payroll employment growth was 911,000 weaker than previously believed last year creates the impression the economy was in trouble even before the more recent near-stagnation in... 11th September 2025 · 4 mins read
BoE Watch No more cuts this year, but rates to fall to 3.00% next year The Bank of England will leave interest rates at 4.00% at its policy meeting on Thursday 18th September, but may announce a bigger scaling back of quantitative tightening (QT) than most expect. Our... 11th September 2025 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Aug 2025) Although the 0.4% m/m rise in the all-items CPI was slightly stronger than expected, our estimates still point to a target-consistent 0.18% m/m gain in the core PCE deflator last month. That cements... 11th September 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (Aug. 2025) August’s RICS survey shows that the combination of weak employment, rebounding mortgage rates and fears over tax rises in the Budget on 26 th November are holding back housing activity, while rents... 11th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Labour market slump to prompt BoC to resume cuts Officials indicated in July that they could support further interest rate cuts if the labour market continued to soften. That is exactly what has happened since, while the upside risks to inflation... 10th September 2025 · 7 mins read
US Fed Watch Weak labour demand forces Fed off the sidelines Easing labour market conditions mean the FOMC is set to vote for a 25bp cut next week, lowering the fed funds target range to between 4.00% and 4.25%, although a rare triple dissent in favour of a... 10th September 2025 · 9 mins read
