UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Mar. 2026) March’s flash PMIs show that the conflict in the Middle East is already going a long way to boosting inflation and extinguishing GDP growth. And this is just the start. 24th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily What we can learn from markets’ latest rebound The positive reaction to the latest news on the war provides some guide as to how things might fare if it de-escalates further, and suggests that the damage in some markets might be a bit longer... 24th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (Feb. 2026) Inflationary pressures are more entrenched than the weak headline result would for February would suggest. Indeed, we believe that the Bank of Japan’s preferred measure of core inflation will remain... 23rd March 2026 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Strong Shunto results will prompt more BoJ rate hikes This year’s spring wage negotiations (Shunto) delivered strong pay hikes for the third consecutive year, which will convince the Bank of Japan to tighten policy further this year. And while softer... 23rd March 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Goods inflation a thorn in the Fed’s side The sharp repricing in futures markets toward discounting the chance of a Fed hike this year looks somewhat overdone, especially given the Fed’s commentary following this week’s rate decision. While... 20th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly War-charged markets push back against dovish Bank Despite the Bank of Canada striking a relatively dovish tone with this week's rate decision, it has found itself swept up in the broader rally in investors' rate expectations. Our base case remains... 20th March 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Market pricing for many rate hikes conflicts with jobs outlook While there are plausible scenarios in which the Bank of England hikes interest rates in response to the leap in energy prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East, the jumps in market rate... 20th March 2026 · 10 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Jan. 2026) The 1.1% m/m rise in retail sales in January was worse than expected but, along with February’s advance estimate for another gain, still paints a more positive picture for household spending than late... 20th March 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public finances (Feb. 2026) February’s public finances figures showed that the fiscal position was worse than expected even before the full impact of the surge in energy prices is felt. As a result, we doubt there is scope for a... 20th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Industry starting to suffer from Middle East conflict Shortages of naphtha resulting from the conflict in the Middle East are evoking the image of severe disruptions in Japan’s manufacturing sector as happened during the pandemic. With some countries in... 20th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will hike rates to 4.60% this year The RBA's decision to hike rates this week was underpinned by its view that upside risks to inflation outweigh downside risks to employment. We suspect that will remain the case for some time. Given... 20th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily The future might not be so bad for government bonds While the conflict in the Middle East could evolve in myriad ways, we think government bonds would typically recover in our ‘baseline’ scenario but struggle in our ‘adverse’ one. That largely reflects... 19th March 2026 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US New Home Sales (Jan. 2026) The large drop in new home sales in January reflects the impact of extreme cold weather across much of the country, and is likely to have reversed last month. Moreover, newbuild sales are less... 19th March 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Bank of England leaning a bit more towards rate hikes rather than cuts While leaving interest rates at 3.75% today as widely expected, the Bank of England suggested it is more concerned about the upsides to inflation from the leap in energy prices triggered by the... 19th March 2026 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update High oil prices risk stalling nascent manufacturing recovery Sustained high oil prices would stall the nascent manufacturing recovery by weighing on global demand. The data centre buildout would likely go on unaffected, however, sustaining strong demand for hi... 19th March 2026 · 4 mins read
