US Housing Market Focus What’s holding single-family starts back? Despite high homebuilder confidence, single-family housing starts have lost momentum since the start of the year. A combination of lot and labour shortages, and the high price of materials, is... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Are housing stocks signalling the next correction? In contrast to 2005, the recent surge and subsequent retreat in homebuilder share prices is not a signal that the housing market is set for a damaging correction. Back then, homebuilder share prices... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Buying still better than renting in the long run Based on the current tax environment, our forecasts for house prices and rents show that buying a median-priced home is better than renting one for any holding period of six years or longer. By making... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus How tight are mortgage lending standards? Smaller down payments and rising debt-to-income ratios might be an indication that mortgage lending standards are once again being relaxed to dangerous levels. But the Ability to Repay rule is... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Why has rental growth slowed? The recent slowdown in rental growth does not reflect an easing in tenant demand but rather seems to reflect a surge in the number of new multifamily developments being brought to market. As... 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Tax reform likely to give housing market a boost President Trump’s plan to raise the standard deduction would make the mortgage interest deduction less valuable, which has raised some concerns in the housing industry. But, if anything, with... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Rising interest rates - how high would be too high? Given their low starting point, and a concurrent rise in income growth, we are optimistic that the housing market can withstand even our above-consensus forecast for mortgage interest rates to reach 5... 22nd March 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus A closer look at the rental vacancy rate Over the next couple of years, the expected gradual increase in the homeownership rate will reduce demand for single-family rental homes. But lower foreclosures will also cut the supply of those... 8th December 2016 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Focus Explaining recent developments in housing equity withdrawal Our estimate of housing equity withdrawal (HEW) shows that, in aggregate, households have yet to return to using their homes as a piggy bank. While the factors holding HEW back are likely to ease the... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Why is the inventory of homes for sale so low? The key driver of low levels of existing home inventory looks to be movers deciding to keep hold of their previous home rather than selling it. In turn, that behaviour has been encouraged by ultra-low... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Is the rental market losing steam? Despite some signs that the rental market is losing momentum, low rental vacancy rates and the prospect of stronger growth in average hourly earnings mean that investors in residential real estate can... 8th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Will single-family housing starts ever recover? In order for housing starts to make sustained headway, building in the single-family sector needs to rise. For that to happen, builders need to shift production towards lower priced starter homes... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Existing Home Sales (May) Existing home sales rose by a marginal 1.8% m/m in May, helped by low mortgage rates. But with sales back to their long-run average and the inventory of homes for sale very low, we doubt sales will... 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus What impact will lower oil prices have on the housing market? Low oil prices will act as a headwind to the housing markets of oil producing states and dent the demand for high-end homes from foreign buyers. But set against that, the money households save on gas... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Is the housing market heading for a slowdown or another boom? It is not out of the question that the coming rise in interest rates will derail the housing market recovery. Equally, however, it is plausible that a surge of pent-up demand, combined with low... 30th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Will homebuilding ever return to the highs of 2006? We are forecasting housing starts to surge by almost 40% over the next few years, reaching 1.5m by the end of 2017. It’s possible that starts could rise even more rapidly in the short term as builders... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
