UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Property taxes won’t solve the Chancellor’s fiscal problems Speculation around which taxes the Chancellor could raise in the Autumn Budget to avoid breaking her fiscal rule and to rebuild her headroom got into full swing this week. Although in theory property... 22nd August 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Can the economy maintain this strength? We don’t think the surprisingly strong performance of the economy in the first half of the year will carry over into the second half. The weak global economy suggests exports will drop back and the... 15th August 2025 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: A higher bar for further UK interest rate cuts In some ways, the Bank of England’s hawkish tone at its policy meeting on Thursday makes sense. However, it’s striking just how little weight the Bank is placing on the downside risks to inflation. We... 8th August 2025 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Households faring better than businesses The latest survey indicators suggest the near-term economic outlook is soft, particularly for businesses. But households may fare a bit better. Although UK equities have lost some ground today, if the... 1st August 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Possible tax rises may further dampen consumer spending The disappointing economic news this week suggests there is some downside risk to our forecast for GDP to rise by 0.2% q/q in Q3 as fears over tax rises in the Autumn Budget already appear to be... 25th July 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Hotter inflation will deter the Bank from cutting rates quicker We think the hotter-than-anticipated inflation figures will deter the Bank of England from speeding up the pace of interest rate cuts rather than cause it to slow down. That’s why we’re sticking to... 18th July 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Past the worst? The further fall in GDP in May provided yet another excuse to talk down the UK economy. But there is some evidence that we are past the worst and the situation will improve from here (or, at the least... 11th July 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Market jitters increase the chances of further tax rises While this week's gilt-sterling sell-off was short-lived, it's left a gloomy cloud over the one-year anniversary of the government's election victory. If the Chancellor is going to continue to meet... 4th July 2025 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Revising down our Bank Rate forecast to 3.00% Helped in part by the decline in energy prices, this week we have become more confident that the recent loosening in the labour market will eventually reduce domestic price pressures. As a result, we... 27th June 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Oil price risk to inflation, infrastructure spending hype With UK inflation still some way above the 2.0% target, it probably wouldn’t require the conflict in the Middle East to cause a leap in the oil price all the way to $130-150 per barrel to prompt the... 20th June 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Chancellor’s fingers are all over weak employment The Chancellor would have hoped that her Spending Review would leave us all talking about how her policies have improved the economic outlook. Instead, the most striking development of the week was... 13th June 2025 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Three things to watch in the Spending Review Next week’s Spending Review will shine a light on the UK’s tight fiscal position. And the Chancellor’s problems are far from over. U-turns on benefit and welfare spending and higher borrowing costs... 6th June 2025 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Evidence pointing to a weak Q2 UK GDP growth will almost certainly slow in Q2 after Q1’s bumper rise, irrespective of the outcome of the US tariff legal saga. Falls in business investment and exports will probably offset rises in... 30th May 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Inflation higher for longer; further tax rises incoming The prospect of higher inflation for longer raises the chances of interest rates falling slower than we expect. Together with the government's announcements this week on the public sector pay rises... 23rd May 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: EU reset + migration policy = no change to GDP growth The upcoming UK-EU reset may boost the UK’s long-term economic growth rate by something like 0.1%. But the government’s new migration policies may reduce it by something like 0.1%. So what the... 16th May 2025 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: UK-US trade deal not a game changer; BoE’s hawkish shift We have argued that higher US tariffs wouldn’t reduce UK GDP by much. It follows that the UK-US trade deal won’t be a game changer. We also argued that investors had got ahead of themselves in... 9th May 2025 · 9 mins read
