UK Economics Weekly Is the Budget already buffeting the economy? The recent poor performance of the housing market and the weakness in consumer and business sentiment probably has more to do with rising inflation, higher mortgage rates and the stuttering jobs... 10th October 2025 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Will households start spending more soon? It was confirmed this week that consumer spending grew by just 0.1% q/q in Q2. We expect consumer spending growth to accelerate, but there are three growing downside risks to that view - weaker... 3rd October 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly What if Starmer and Reeves are replaced? The government's vulnerability will make the job of stabilising the public finances and boosting economic growth more difficult. It also raises the risk of an altogether worse outcome – a fiscal... 26th September 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Chancellor’s tricky fiscal situation just got trickier The combination of a likely downgrade to the Office for Budget Responsibility's productivity growth forecast in the Budget on 26th November and the further rise in borrowing costs this week adds to... 19th September 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Rising inflation expectations adding to the BoE’s nerves The recent rises in households’ inflation expectations will be making the Bank of England more nervous about the outlook for inflation. This feeds into our new forecast that the Bank will keep... 12th September 2025 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Later Budget may hinder, not help the Chancellor While the Chancellor will be hoping that a later Budget will mean she gets a more favourable set of forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), we are not convinced. The OBR will still... 5th September 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Conditions ripe for fiscal crisis, gov’t must not pull the trigger Most of the conditions that have led to fiscal crises in the past are now in place. The missing factor is a trigger. This means that whatever the Chancellor chooses to do in the Autumn Budget, it’s... 29th August 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Property taxes won’t solve the Chancellor’s fiscal problems Speculation around which taxes the Chancellor could raise in the Autumn Budget to avoid breaking her fiscal rule and to rebuild her headroom got into full swing this week. Although in theory property... 22nd August 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Can the economy maintain this strength? We don’t think the surprisingly strong performance of the economy in the first half of the year will carry over into the second half. The weak global economy suggests exports will drop back and the... 15th August 2025 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: A higher bar for further UK interest rate cuts In some ways, the Bank of England’s hawkish tone at its policy meeting on Thursday makes sense. However, it’s striking just how little weight the Bank is placing on the downside risks to inflation. We... 8th August 2025 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Households faring better than businesses The latest survey indicators suggest the near-term economic outlook is soft, particularly for businesses. But households may fare a bit better. Although UK equities have lost some ground today, if the... 1st August 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Possible tax rises may further dampen consumer spending The disappointing economic news this week suggests there is some downside risk to our forecast for GDP to rise by 0.2% q/q in Q3 as fears over tax rises in the Autumn Budget already appear to be... 25th July 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Hotter inflation will deter the Bank from cutting rates quicker We think the hotter-than-anticipated inflation figures will deter the Bank of England from speeding up the pace of interest rate cuts rather than cause it to slow down. That’s why we’re sticking to... 18th July 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Past the worst? The further fall in GDP in May provided yet another excuse to talk down the UK economy. But there is some evidence that we are past the worst and the situation will improve from here (or, at the least... 11th July 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Market jitters increase the chances of further tax rises While this week's gilt-sterling sell-off was short-lived, it's left a gloomy cloud over the one-year anniversary of the government's election victory. If the Chancellor is going to continue to meet... 4th July 2025 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Revising down our Bank Rate forecast to 3.00% Helped in part by the decline in energy prices, this week we have become more confident that the recent loosening in the labour market will eventually reduce domestic price pressures. As a result, we... 27th June 2025 · 5 mins read
