UK Economics Focus Is inflation back from the dead? Recent signs of higher inflation in many advanced economies have prompted the question of whether inflation is back from the dead. Our answer is a qualified “no”. The shift to an era of low inflation... 30th May 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Sterling’s rise eases pressure to raise rates The MPC’s latest forecasts suggested that interest rates would need to rise for the 2% inflation target to be hit. But these forecasts did not count on the recent rise in the sterling exchange rate... 30th May 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Commodity prices: current highs are not sustainable Commodity prices are now unsustainably high. We expect supply to continue to rise rapidly, since rising prices have greatly increased producers’ profitability. Mineral reserves are more than adequate... 5th May 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Still some slack in the economy While the picture is far from clear, there are some signs that a fair amount of spare capacity remains in the economy. With real GDP growth showing signs of returning to its trend rate, this could be... 19th April 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Are UK households saving at all? Amidst the concern about the state of households’ balance sheets, one source of reassurance appears to be the fact that savings in the UK are still much higher than in the US. Indeed, the US saving... 4th April 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Are UK households saving at all? Amidst the concern about the state of households’ balance sheets, one source of reassurance appears to be the fact that savings in the UK are still much higher than in the US. Indeed, the US saving... 4th April 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Immigration to keep wage pressures subdued The rise in immigration after the expansion of the EU in 2004 could be one of the most important developments in the UK economy in recent years. But we doubt that this rise has been fully captured in... 27th March 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2006 In macro-economic terms this was one of the least significant budgets in living memory. The net giveaway in the coming year was a mere £400 million, counterbalanced by a £400 million claw back the... 22nd March 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2006 In macro-economic terms this was one of the least significant budgets in living memory. The net giveaway in the coming year was a mere £400 million, counterbalanced by a £400 million claw back the... 22nd March 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How much should we worry about US protectionism? The increase in protectionist pressures in the US is likely to come to a head in April, when Chinese President Hu Jintao visits Washington. In a worst case this could result in a trade war with... 21st March 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Outlook still weak for household goods sales Sales of household goods have suffered particularly badly over the last year, as both the housing market and overall consumer spending have slowed. But there are now tentative signs that the sector... 16th March 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Outlook still weak for household goods sales Sales of household goods have suffered particularly badly over the last year, as both the housing market and overall consumer spending have slowed. But there are now tentative signs that the sector... 16th March 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2006 Preview We expect Gordon Brown’s tenth Budget to contain tax increases worth £3bn to £4bn, probably rather larger than most people will expect. If we are right, the resulting tightening of the fiscal stance... 8th March 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus UK Budget: Building the new war chest We expect Gordon Brown’s tenth Budget to contain tax increases worth £3bn to £4bn, probably rather larger than most people will expect. If we are right, the resulting tightening of the fiscal stance... 8th March 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Corporate recovery at threat from pension fund deficits The gaping hole in corporate pension funds has been exacerbated by the recent drop in UK long bond yields, which are used to discount the value of future pension liabilities. In order to eliminate... 22nd February 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Strong demand for retail floorspace unlikely to persist The continued enthusiasm of retailers to take on extra retail space over the last year or so has been somewhat surprising in the face of their recent rise in costs and the slowdown in retail sales... 20th February 2006 · 1 min read
