Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank’s economic forecasts still look too optimistic The Swedish Riksbank continued to suggest that interest rate hikes are unlikely until the end of 2014. But we expect the economic recovery to be weaker than the Bank expects, implying that rates could... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update What would a new government mean for Norway? The Conservative-led opposition is favourite to win the Norwegian election on the 9th September. But the party looks unlikely to tackle the economy’s twin addiction to energy exports and household... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland on long and winding road to recovery Iceland is well on the way to recovery. But legacy problems from its 2008 crisis will hang over the economy for some time yet, preventing GDP from regaining its pre-crisis high until 2015. 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Denmark to drag itself out of property slump The Danish property market, at the heart of the country’s long slump, is on the mend. This suggests that the economy is finally turning a corner, but the recovery in both house prices and the wider... 5th August 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Forward guidance – the experience of Sweden Some central banks are beginning to make greater use of “forward guidance” to signal that interest rates will remain low for the foreseeable future. The evidence from Sweden, where the Riksbank has... 18th July 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norwegian rate cut still likely despite FX depreciation We have long argued that the strength of the Norwegian krone would push the Norges Bank into further monetary easing. While the currency’s recent sell-off might ease pressure on the Bank somewhat, we... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank’s economic forecasts still look too optimistic The Swedish Riksbank left interest rates unchanged at 1.0% today and signalled that it still expects to begin raising rates in late 2014. However, we still think that the Bank’s economic forecasts are... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank rate cut still a possibility The Norges Bank left interest rates unchanged today as concerns about financial stability once again outweighed the need to weaken the currency and boost inflation. But the Bank once again pushed back... 20th June 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland won’t unfreeze capital flows anytime soon Five years since they were implemented, Iceland still relies on ‘temporary’ capital controls to support its currency. And they are likely to remain in place for some time yet despite the new... 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank will be forced into a cut by end-2013 The Norges Bank left interest rates unchanged today as concerns about rising household debt once again outweighed the need to weaken the currency and boost inflation. But our expectation for the euro... 8th May 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Falling oil prices highlight Norway’s long-term problems Due to Norway’s much-lauded fiscal rules, the recent fall in oil prices will have little impact on the economy’s bright near-term outlook. Nonetheless, Norway’s growing dependence on hydrocarbons... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Deleveraging in Denmark: what lessons for other Nordics? Household spending in Denmark has barely recovered since its housing bubble burst in 2007 and there appears little respite ahead for households. With rising debt now fuelling housing booms in Sweden... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB ready to do more if deflation risks rise The Swiss National Bank pledged to maintain its extremely supportive policy stance today, keeping interest rates as close to zero as possible and defending its exchange rate ceiling. But even at the... 14th March 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank will continue to push back rate hikes The Norges Bank’s decision to leave the policy rate unchanged reflects the dilemma facing the Bank as a strong currency prevents it from hiking rates to stem a housing boom. These countervailing... 14th March 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norway’s housing boom won’t force rates higher Norway is in the midst of a long housing boom, but prices are not as over-valued as some valuation measures suggest. Given other downward risks to the economic outlook, we think that interest rates... 26th February 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Negative rates: lessons from Denmark The Danish central bank’s use of negative interest rates provides an insight into one of the few untried tools still available to major central banks. Denmark’s experience suggests that negative rates... 19th February 2013 · 1 min read
