Middle East & North Africa Economics Update First thoughts on Egypt’s presidential elections Today marks the first day in Egypt’s presidential elections with the opinion polls and expatriate votes showing contradictory results. Regardless of who wins, two outstanding issues remain from an... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Jordan turns to the IMF and Saudi Arabia for funding The soaring cost of energy subsidies has led the Jordanian government to turn to the IMF and Saudi Arabia for $5 billion in external financial assistance. We think that given Jordan’s geopolitical... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s economy disappoints in Q1 The pick-up in Egypt’s GDP growth from 0.4% y/y in Q4 to 5.2% y/y in Q1 was flattered by favourable base effects. Indeed, on a seasonally adjusted basis, we estimate that output contracted by 1.4% q/q... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How has Egypt’s economy shaped up in Q1? Monthly activity data suggest that the Egyptian economy may have grown by up to 10% y/y in Q1. But this will have been helped by favourable base effects, given the almost 5% y/y contraction in output... 17th May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Time running out for Egypt to secure IMF deal Recent comments from Egypt’s Finance Minister suggest that the country could receive help from the IMF next month. But with the external environment deteriorating sharply over the past few weeks... 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Early signs of overheating in Saudi Arabia A huge fiscal stimulus by the Saudi government ensured that the country avoided the unrest that swept the region last year and drove growth rates in the non-oil economy to record highs. However, the... 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Middle East Markets Monitor (May) Fresh hopes that some equity markets in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) had turned a corner at the start of 2012 have quickly faded. Instead, attention has turned to Islamic bond markets... 9th May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Increase in Egypt’s FX reserves unlikely to be sustained The increase in Egypt’s foreign currency reserves in April is good news but it is unlikely to last. The fact is that last month’s rise is very small. What’s more, it is largely due to a one-off... 8th May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Growing risk of fiscal crises in the oil-poor Arab countries One of the most striking – and often overlooked – developments in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) following the Arab Spring has been the stark divergence in the fiscal health of the region’s... 4th May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Constitution key for Egypt’s new president Today marks the beginning of campaigning for Egypt’s presidential elections. While most commentators are focusing on the likely winner, we think that the definition of the exact powers of Egypt’s next... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Dubai bond issue will not detract from GREs’ troubles The high level of interest in this week’s Sukuk issuance by Dubai is a sign of renewed confidence in the emirate’s debt. However, since no funds will be allocated to Dubai’s government-related... 27th April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: hopes fading for a quick deal with the IMF The decision by the Egyptian parliament to reject the government’s economic plan highlights a growing rift between the Muslim Brotherhood and the military-appointed administration. Worryingly, this... 25th April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Europe’s deleveraging to increase pressure on Gulf businesses Ample liquidity coupled with a decreasing reliance on foreign funding mean that most banks in the Gulf are well-placed to weather any storm in the euro-zone’s financial system. But deleveraging in... 19th April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Downside risks to Saudi equities are high By most measures, Saudi stocks appear to be undervalued by up to 30%. Recent earnings data have also beaten analysts’ estimates and expectations for profit growth are strong leading many to suggest... 18th April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: political chaos raises risk of major economic crisis Various events over the past couple of days have thrown Egypt’s fragile political transition into disarray. These developments raise fresh doubts over the country’s ability to secure external... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Markets Monitor (Apr.) Consistent with trends in other emerging markets, most of the Middle East’s stock markets have dropped back from the highs reached earlier this year. While Egypt’s fall is perhaps the most striking... 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
