Industrial Metals Update China stimulus not a silver bullet for industrial metals The outlook for industrial metals demand has deteriorated alongside the weakening of China’s economy this year, particularly in the property sector. Monetary and fiscal stimulus might paper over the... 16th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Metals Chart Pack Metals Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) We expect targeted stimulus in China to put a floor under base metals prices in the remainder of 2023. But the slowdown in developed economies (DMs) will prevent significant gains. Prices should start... 8th August 2023 · 1 min read
Event Commodities Drop-In: How recession and war will drive prices in 2023 1668006000 The outlook for commodity prices has rarely felt more complex: while a looming global recession is set to drag on demand, the ongoing war in Ukraine is likely to mean some markets will remain jumpy
Commodities Prices to stay high for longer The war in Ukraine and its negative impact on commodities supply has prompted us to revise up our forecasts for the prices of most commodities in 2022. Regardless of the outcome of the war, we think... 29th April 2022 · 40 mins read
Commodities High volatility to persist while war rages on Commodity prices are as volatile as they’ve ever been. We don’t think volatility will ease until the war in Ukraine ends, because only then will we know the true extent of the Russia-related supply... 31st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Lessons from the 1970s for commodity markets The experience of the 1970s suggests that the ongoing war in Ukraine and its effects on commodity prices will reshape commodity markets for years to come. Most immediately, elevated prices are likely... 29th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities China’s PMIs point to subdued demand China’s PMIs ticked up a little in February, but the big picture is that economic growth remains lacklustre in part owing to measures to contain COVID-19. The subdued demand picture confirms that the... 1st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities How large are risk premiums in commodity prices? Our estimates suggest that risk premiums are currently adding around 40% to commodity prices. This suggests that commodity prices could fall a long way whenever concerns over the Russia-Ukraine... 25th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities The latest Russia-Ukraine escalation and our forecasts The latest twist in the Russia-Ukraine crisis is likely to keep commodity prices elevated over the coming weeks and months. And if the situation spirals into a more serious and wide-ranging conflict... 24th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Metals Global Steel Production (Jan.) Global steel production fell in y/y terms in January, driven by a double-digit contraction in China. It appears that subdued demand in China is acting as a constraint on output. Our expectation of... 22nd February 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Evergrande collapse would put a ceiling on prices Although a messy collapse of Evergrande is a downside risk to our near-term price forecasts, it adds weight to our view that China’s construction sector is in structural decline. In turn, this... 23rd September 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Commodity prices on increasingly shaky ground After sharp falls in the middle of the month, most commodity prices ended August broadly flat. However, we doubt it will be long before the downward pressure on prices intensifies again. After all... 3rd September 2021 · 11 mins read
Commodities An emboldened UAE scuppers the OPEC+ united front Oil prices were rising in June even before the July OPEC+ meeting ended in disarray, without agreement. Strong growth in demand as economies lift virus-related restrictions is expected to continue to... 6th July 2021 · 11 mins read
Commodities China PMIs herald a period of slower growth China’s June survey data show softer growth in activity and supports our forecast that economic growth will slow from here, which will weigh on the prices of most commodities, especially the metals. 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities What a Biden victory could mean for commodities A victory for the Democratic party in November’s presidential election has several potential implications for commodity markets. Very broadly, Joe Biden’s pledge to actively promote decarbonisation of... 30th October 2020 · 13 mins read
