Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s current account deficit to widen Mexico’s current account deficit is likely to widen over the coming quarters and, while it will remain modest compared with other parts of Latin America, we expect the peso to come under pressure. 7th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s current account deficit a growing risk Colombia’s current account deficit has, somewhat surprisingly, widened this year despite the boost to the country’s terms of trade from high oil prices, and now stands at an alarming level. And the... 1st November 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What to watch after Lula’s victory The narrow victory for Lula in the second-round of Brazil’s presidential election yesterday has, so far, thankfully not been contested by Bolsonaro. But there’s still likely to be a negative reaction... 31st October 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Copom: staying hawkish despite inflation plunge The hawkish language in the statement accompanying the Brazilian central bank’s decision late yesterday, at which it left the Selic rate at 13.75%, reinforces our view that the sharp fall in inflation... 27th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Update Deforestation a key issue in Brazil’s election Environmental policy is one channel through which Brazil’s presidential election has global implications. The country is the single largest source of deforestation in the world and, with deforestation... 17th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: tightening cycle has ended but rates will stay high Chile’s central bank (BCCh) became the latest in the emerging world to end its tightening cycle yesterday. But with inflation only likely to fall back towards target in late-2023 and the external... 13th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update From inflation crisis to financial crisis? Problems at California-based lender Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) have refocussed attention on financial sector risks. In light of this, we are resending a report from last October that provides a... 11th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update What Lula could mean for Brazil’s financial markets Investors seem to have taken the prospect of a second Lula presidency positively so far, but we suspect returns from the country’s dollar bonds and equities will disappoint over the next couple of... 3rd October 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Lula in pole position but will face hurdles in congress Left-wing former president Lula looks most likely to win the second-round run-off presidential vote on 30th October. But the surprisingly strong performance of President Bolsonaro and his allies on... 3rd October 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico and BanRep to remain in hawkish mood Central banks in Mexico and Colombia delivered further large interest rates hikes yesterday, of 75bp and 100bp respectively, and the backdrop of strong inflation pressures and tighter external... 30th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Fiscal risks loom largest in Brazil and Colombia The improvement in government budget positions across Latin America over the past year or so has been driven in large part by temporary factors and is likely to reverse before long. As things stand... 22nd September 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: tightening cycle now over but rates to stay high The Brazilian central bank’s decision to leave the Selic rate unchanged at 13.75% after 12 consecutive hikes makes it one of the first central banks globally to bring its tightening cycle to an end... 22nd September 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: weak growth & lower oil prices pose fiscal risk Mexico’s 2023 budget proposal suggests that officials intend to stick to their tight policy stance, but the public finances are likely to deteriorate if (as we expect) oil prices fall back and the... 15th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect Brazil’s financial markets to struggle We think a combination of domestic and external factors will push up risk premia in Brazil over the rest of this year. This informs our forecasts that the real will weaken and the country’s bonds will... 8th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: nearing the end of the tightening cycle The Monetary Policy Report released by Chile’s central bank today, following on from its larger-than-expected 100bp rate increase to 10.75% yesterday, suggests that its tightening cycle is drawing to... 7th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil Election Watch – the state of the race Former President Lula holds a commanding lead in the polls ahead of Brazil’s presidential election on 2nd October. It seems unlikely that he would govern as radically as his party’s manifesto suggests... 6th September 2022 · 5 mins read
