Global Economics Update The implications of a renewed closure of the Strait The global economy has so far weathered the energy shock created by the war in Iran, but a sharp drawdown in oil inventories has left stocks close to critically low levels. The oil market therefore... 16th July 2026 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update Can anything reverse the yen’s fortunes? While the weakness of the yen remains a puzzle, we still expect the currency to rebound by the end of next year. Our end-2027 forecast for USD/JPY is 150, which compares to a current rate of ~162. 15th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update AI boom will only provide small boost to inflation Japan’s economy isn’t benefitting much from the surge in demand related to artificial intelligence. While higher electronics import prices should result in faster price increases for household... 14th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update 10-year JGB yield will climb to 3% before long The latest available data are consistent with our long-held view that Japan’s budget deficit has narrowed far more rapidly than many thought. Nonetheless, with the BoJ set to lift interest rates to 2%... 6th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Weaker yen should lift inflation before long While any boost from higher energy costs to consumer prices will be short-lived, the continued weakening of the yen will provide a more longer lasting boost to consumer prices in Japan. Accordingly... 1st July 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ will lift rates to 2% by end-2027 The Bank of Japan hiked its policy rate to a three decade high today and signalled less concern about downside risks to activity resulting from the Iran War. With inflation set to pick up as higher... 16th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Japanese capital repatriation still not a big threat In light of recent market developments, we are re-sending this Update on the implications of higher Japanese yields for global markets. Despite the continued rise in JGB yields, we don’t think global... 28th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Could the BoJ lift rates into restrictive territory? The inflationary consequences of the Iran War have made us more confident in our view that the BoJ’s policy rate will climb to a neutral level of around 2% before long. However, the hurdles for the... 26th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Bonds Update The JGB selloff is nearing a crucial point While FX intervention dominated the headlines a couple of weeks ago, Japan’s bond markets have come under increasing pressure. This Update argues that most of the past rise in yields has been benign... 21st May 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Assessing the effects of an extreme war scenario In this Update, we explore an extreme scenario in which the Iran war escalates beyond the assumptions in our published baseline and adverse scenarios. With Brent crude jumping higher and staying at... 14th May 2026 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan will hike rates again in June While the BoJ kept policy settings unchanged today and turned more pessimistic about the outlook for economic activity, policymakers seem more worried about the inflationary consequences of higher... 28th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Government fiscal health still set to improve further Changes to the way the IMF measures Japan’s government debt mean that the net debt position now looks less favourable. But we still expect it to decline faster than the IMF is anticipating. 17th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Business investment boom not on the cards The recent surge in machinery orders seems to vindicate concerns by some BoJ Board members that the Bank is falling behind the curve. However, other indicators are less upbeat and with the energy cost... 15th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The economic consequences of a tax on Hormuz trade A tax on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would be unlikely to have major near-term implications for global energy markets, trade or wider economic activity. But depending on how it is structured... 9th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Surge in EV sales won’t help Japan’s carmakers much The sales of electric vehicles by Japanese carmakers have skyrocketed in recent months but this offers little protection against the mounting competitive threat from Chinese firms. 7th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update What are the potential implications of Houthi Attacks? While the direct effect of renewed strikes on shipping in the Red Sea on aggregate world trade is likely to be limited, the impact on Asian economies that rely more heavily on oil imports from Saudi... 31st March 2026 · 4 mins read
