India Economics Update Rebased CPI data won’t change the big picture Forthcoming consumer price inflation data for January will be the first in the rebased series but, unlike the recently revised GDP data, we doubt that this will have a spectacular impact on headline... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update A health-check of the banking sector Recent moves from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to encourage more lending have brought the health of the domestic banking sector under scrutiny. But while the level of bad loans in the system have... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI’s rate pause likely to prove short-lived Governor Rajan opted not to follow up on January’s unscheduled rate cut with further loosening in today’s policy review, with the repo and the reverse repo rates kept on hold at 7.75% and 6.75%... 3rd February 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Taking stock of the GDP revisions Revisions to India’s historic GDP data have been greeted with both cheers and bemusement. One of the more puzzling aspects is that nominal GDP in the last fiscal year was left all but unchanged by the... 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update GDP revisions raise more questions than answers At face value, today’s revisions to India’s historic GDP data suggest that the economy has been performing far better than had previously appeared. If true, this implies there is much less room for a... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update All eyes on the union budget The government’s next budget, due to beannounced on 28th February, has taken on even more importance than normal, with the ReserveBank of India (RBI) looking for fiscal consolidation and investors... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rupee strength supports case for policy loosening The rupee has been among the world’s best performing currencies so far this year, due to a combination of a narrowing trade deficit and strong foreign inflows into local equities. This has given the... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Markets buoyed by RBI’s early rate cut Having already made a good start to 2015, India’s financial markets have rallied further following the RBI’s decision to cut interest rates at an unscheduled meeting last week. Bond yields have... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update How are economic reforms progressing? Prime Minister Modi’s use of four executive orders since the end of December has added some impetus to the reform agenda, which has arguably seen the biggest strides made in areas of tax and foreign... 19th January 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update More loosening to follow RBI’s early rate cut The RBI has shocked markets by cutting its policy rates at an unscheduled meeting today, much sooner than most had expected. Given the weakness of the economy and recent falls in inflation, we... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Pick-up in inflation unlikely to worry RBI Consumer price inflation is likely to have edged up in December as the unwinding of favourable base effects from food inflation more than offset the impact of tumbling oil prices and weak core price... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Early end to strike doesn’t solve coal sector’s problems The end to strike action in India’s coal sector three days earlier than planned should ensure a quick resumption to normal production levels, which will reduce the risk of blackouts in the near term... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Cause for optimism in 2015 In our first Watch of 2015, we outline the prospects for India’s economy over the coming year. Falling commodity prices should brighten the outlook by providing a boost to consumer spending and... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI unlikely to panic over rupee sell-off India has not been immune to the turbulence that has hit EM markets over the past few days in the wake of the unfolding crisis in Russia. This has led to suggestions that the RBI is now likely to... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Markets raise expectations of rate cuts The recent sharp slowdown in inflation, combined with dovish commentary from the RBI in its policy review earlier this month, have prompted India’s financial markets to price in the rising likelihood... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Reforming the coal sector remains a difficult prospect The likely part-privatisation of Coal India early next year shows that there is some appetite within government to reform the sector. But this is only a small step towards addressing a myriad of... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
