India Economics Update No need to panic over maturing FX swaps There still appears to be some confusion over the potential market impact when the RBI’s FX swap facilities mature next month. The RBI has already confirmed that the maturing swaps have been covered... 10th August 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Governor Rajan holds rates in final policy meeting Governor Raghuram Rajan has developed a habit of surprising financial markets over the past three years, but there were no shocks in store in his final policy announcement today as the repo rate was... 9th August 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update GST reform a major step forward The passage of a long-awaited Goods and Service Tax (GST) yesterday by India’s parliament is arguably one of the country’s most important economic reforms of the past couple of decades and should... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Monsoon impact on inflation limited July’s consumer price inflation data is likely to show that the headline rate edged down but remained some way above the Reserve Bank’s 5.0% target for March 2017. Suggestions from many commentators... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update A snapshot of the services sector GDP data due at the end of August are likely to show that India’s economy continued to perform impressively in Q2, with the services sector remaining the key driver of growth. But we, and many others... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rise in coal production belies longer-term challenges A jump in domestic production and fall in imports of coal this year have led some to suggest that thegovernment is on track to meet its target of doubling output from end-2014 levels by 2020. But the... 27th July 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Bond market rally likely to run out of steam Indian bond yields have recently fallen to their lowest levels since 2013, in large part due to anticipation that the successor to Governor Raghuram Rajan at the RBI will be more dovish. But with the... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Export slump ends but sharp rebound unlikely Trade data for June showed positive growth in export values for the first time since the end of 2014. But with progress on the reforms needed to create a vibrant export sector still slow, the... 18th July 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation to slow but stay above target We think that Indian consumer price inflation dropped in June, but it is likely to have remained some way above the Reserve Bank’s 5.0% target for March 2017. There is little reason to think that... 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Passage of Goods and Services Tax edging closer Recent changes to the composition of the Rajya Sabha have raised the likelihood that the long-awaited Goods and Services Tax (GST) bill will finally be passed. But there are still sticking points, the... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Further FDI reform will prove harder to implement Measures announced last week to further ease restrictions on foreign direct investment into India should help at the margins to build on one of the main policy successes of the Modi government so far... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Who will succeed Governor Rajan at the RBI? Following the announcement earlier this month from Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Raghuram Rajan that he will be stepping down at the end of his first term in September, speculation has been... 27th June 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Markets calm as Governor Rajan heads for the exit Th e market fallout from RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan’s announcement that he will step down at the end of his current contract in September has so far been limited to a slight drop in the rupee and a... 21st June 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Governor Rajan to step down, all eyes now on successor The announcement from RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan that he will stand down at the end of his current contract in September is likely to put local financial markets under pressure in the near term... 20th June 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update BoP data show further strengthening in external position The narrowing in India’s current account deficit in Q1, along with another rise in foreign direct investment inflows, leaves the economy looking well placed to weather any sudden shifts in global risk... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Export slump close to an end but long-term prospects subdued India's trade data for May suggest that the prolonged contraction in exports in US dollar terms has almost run its course. But with progress on the reforms needed to create a vibrant export sector... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
