Global Economics Update Is the G7 due a recession? It is often claimed that the current expansion has lasted so long that a recession must be just around the corner. But history suggests that there is no such hard-and-fast rule. 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World economy can cope with slowdown in China The slowdown in China which now appears to be underway may prompt periodic bouts of nerves in financial and commodity markets. But we expect China’s growth rate to slow only gradually, rather than to... 8th May 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) Despite the dip in survey data in April, global manufacturing conditions are still in good shape. We expect world GDP growth to rebound in Q2 following a weak first quarter. 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth likely to rebound after weak Q1 Global growth slowed quite sharply in the first quarter of 2017, largely due to weaker activity in China and the US. However, we expect growth in the world as a whole to rebound in Q2. 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global fiscal policy likely to be eased slightly this year and next We expect aggregate fiscal policy in advanced economies to be loosened slightly in the coming year or two. President Trump will not succeed in passing the “phenomenal” tax cuts which he has promised... 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Apr.) Preliminary PMIs, which were published by Markit today, suggest that the recovery in advanced economies continued in April. 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update High consumer confidence bodes well for the world economy Consumer confidence has risen in recent months in much of the developed world. This bodes well for household spending and global growth prospects. Consumer confidence indices are usually composites of... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Have inflation worries gone for good? The recent decline in global inflation expectations has reflected some benign news both on inflation itself and on its key drivers. But even if inflation expectations fall further, markets should be... 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update IMF’s forecasts reflect a bright economic outlook The IMF’s latest projections for global growth, published today, are in line with ours (using official figures for China) and point to healthy global GDP growth of about 3½% in the coming year or two. 18th April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Economics likely to trump geopolitics Geopolitical concerns have boosted demand for safe-haven assets in the past week, and have pushed up measures of implied volatility in equity markets. But experience suggests that geopolitical events... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Money and credit expanding at a healthy pace Global monetary conditions remain supportive for the world economy. In the four major advanced economies, bank lending to both households and non-financial companies is expanding steadily, and... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update A brighter outlook, and higher growth forecasts Upbeat economic data for the first quarter of the year have prompted us to raise our forecasts for growth in several economies. But underlying wage and price pressures remain exceptionally low outside... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are the credit data signalling a slowdown? Aggregate measures of credit growth in advanced economies have slowed sharply in the past month or two. But this is almost entirely due to weakness in the US, which we do not expect to last. What’s... 6th April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) The latest PMIs suggest that global manufacturing activity remained strong in March, adding to evidence that the global economy is in good shape. Surveys also suggest that pipeline inflationary... 3rd April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Mar.) The “flash” PMIs, published by Markit earlier today, suggest that a strong and broadbased global recovery has continued in March, even though the numbers for Japan and the US slipped a little compared... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Strong employment growth still not lifting wages everywhere Labour markets have continued to recover in all of the four major advanced economies in recent years but prospects for wage growth still differ considerably. The rise in earnings growth in the US is... 20th March 2017 · 1 min read
