Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Rise in oil prices not all positive for Norway The recent rise in oil prices will provide some short-term support to the Norwegian economy, but the associated strengthening of the krone will hinder the economy’s rebalancing away from oil. We... 6th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Target2 imbalances highlight uneven effects of QE The recent increase in Target2 imbalances does not suggest that the euro-zone is set for another crisis on the scale of 2011/12. However, it does suggest that countries in the core might be... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB holds fire but more easing still likely The ECB is in wait and see mode while it assesses the effects of its latest policy measures, but President Draghi left the door wide open to further policy action. We continue to believe that the... 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (May) There was some good news last month for public finances in the euro-zone’s periphery as Moody’s upgraded Ireland’s sovereign debt and the EC decided to be lenient with Portugal and Spain after both... 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How would the ECB respond to a Brexit? A Brexit and its after-effects could prompt the European Central Bank (ECB) to undertake further unconventional policy action, including measures to support the euro-zone’s financial sector, FX... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Iceland holds rates but tightening cycle not yet over Iceland’s central bank kept its interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting. But with price pressures set to pick up in the second half of the year, further tightening will be needed. 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland holds rates but tightening cycle not yet over Iceland’s central bank kept its interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting. But with price pressures set to pick up in the second half of the year, further tightening will be needed. 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will a new government halve Spanish unemployment? In order to cut Spanish unemployment significantly, the parties that gain power after voters return to the polls in June will need to focus on retraining the workforce. But even if schemes were... 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s recovery losing speed The European Commission’s measure of economic sentiment in Italy suggests that the recovery might have gained some pace in Q2. However, April’s increase in unemployment and other, more reliable... 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) April’s euro-zone monetary data suggest that economic growth remains fairly slow. While the full effects of the ECB’s expanded stimulus measures will not yet have been felt, we doubt that they will... 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Eurogroup’s Greek debt pledges fall a long way short The likely disbursement of the next tranche of Greece’s third bailout may have reduced the risk of a summer flare-up of the country’s debt crisis. But with the creditors’ pledges on debt relief... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Austrian result offers only brief respite from far-right’s rise The election of pro-immigration and -EU Alexander Van der Bellen as Austria’s next president keeps the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) out of office for now. But the FPÖ remain the top party in general... 24th May 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish inflation outlook dependent on krona strength The rise in Swedish inflation will prove short-lived if inflation expectations stay below 2%. In order to boost such expectations, the Riksbank must ensure that the krona does not appreciate strongly. 21st May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Dutch consumers keep on spending? Despite the recent falls in consumer confidence, there are a number of reasons to be positive about the outlook for household spending in the Netherlands over the coming years. Nevertheless, worries... 18th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update French strikes darken the economic outlook This week’s French protests over a watered down labour market law highlight just how hard it will be to reform the economy. This suggests that France’s economic weakness will be prolonged... 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Mounting risks bode ill for Italy Like much of the rest of the euro-zone, Italy’s economy got off to a decent start to the year. However,the outlook for growth remains weak and the risks to the recovery are mounting. Eventually... 16th May 2016 · 1 min read
