Europe Economics Update Italy’s “fiscal shock” set to cause more problems Italy is on another collision course with the EU that looks set to push bond yields up and weigh on economic activity. 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Just how weak is the Swedish krona? Swedish policymakers are increasingly vocal about their concerns that the sharp sell-off in the krona this year has gone too far. But we find little evidence to support the idea that the currency has... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Fragmented Danish politics won’t change fiscal stance Denmark’s forthcoming election has revealed a number of cracks within traditional party groupings which could complicate the coalition-forming process. But regardless of which parties end up in... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Eight quick points about the European elections Projections of the results of the European elections confirm that pro-European parties will continue to have a clear majority in the European Parliament (EP) itself, so little will change at EU level... 27th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Account shows ECB divided but dovish The account of the ECB’s latest monetary policy meeting confirms that policymakers were concerned about downside risks to economic activity and, particularly, inflation. This reinforces our view that... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Falling inflation expectations another worry for ECB The recent fall in financial market measures of inflation expectations may be a bit misleading, and is not matched by a comparable fall in households’ inflation expectations. But it is nonetheless... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Further rate cuts in Iceland unlikely The Central Bank of Iceland’s decision to cut interest rates by 50bp to 4.00% came as a surprise. While it was prompted by a deterioration in the economic outlook, inflation expectations remain high... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update No smoking gun in German industrial slowdown While the sharp downturns in the German motor vehicle and chemical sectors have attracted a lot of attention, the weakness of other sectors accounts for more of the slowdown in production since 2017... 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy is heading for another clash with the EU Recent comments by Italy’s deputy prime minister have increased the risk that Italy is placed in an EU disciplinary procedure later this year. There are a few ways that talks about Italy’s fiscal... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update New (lower) forecasts for the Swedish krona Following the recent flare-up in global trade tensions and dovish shift in the Riksbank’s stance, we have revised down our already below-consensus end-2019 forecast for the krona against the euro from... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How big a threat are US tariffs to the EU? The US is stepping up the pressure on China to agree a trade deal, and a deadline to decide whether to raise tariffs on all auto imports is looming. On their own, those tariffs would do little damage... 13th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Little chance of a much bigger fiscal stimulus On current plans, national governments in the euro-zone will deliver a modest fiscal stimulus worth around 0.5% of GDP during 2019 and 2020 combined. Hopes that it might be scaled up significantly... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Burden of negative rates won’t prevent further easing Negative interest rates in Denmark, Switzerland, and Sweden impose costs on their respective banking sectors, but the overall burdens are very small – well below 0.1% of bank assets in all cases... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What to expect from the European Parliament elections A surge in support for populist parties in European parliamentary elections later this month should have little bearing on economic policy in the near term. After all, moderate parties are still... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Inflation to fall despite higher oil prices Data due to be released tomorrow are set to show a jump in inflation in April. But given that this rise will largely be the result of Easter timing effects, it is unlikely to be sustained. And while... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are the euro-zone activity surveys too pessimistic? The official euro-zone activity data for Q1 were much stronger than the message from the business and consumer surveys. But we still think that the consistent weakness of the survey evidence bodes ill... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
