Europe Economics Update Greek bail-out now more likely than not The revelation that Greece used complex financial assets to improve the official figures on the public finances earlier this decade highlights the uncertainty surrounding the reliability of these... 24th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Easing German labour costs to help exporters Recent trade union deals point to a slowdown in German wage growth, which will come as a welcome relief to hard-pressed exporters. This supports our view that a robust export recovery will see Germany... 24th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Belgium the Greece of the North? Despite growing fairly solidly in the last two quarters, Belgium shares some worrying similarities with Greece and the other troubled Southern euro-zone economies. But its stronger trade position and... 17th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek economic woes grow as markets’ fears ease The fact that last week’s European Commission “accord” on Greece appears to have placated the markets temporarily is clearly encouraging for Greece. But with the Greek recession intensifying in Q4 and... 15th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update The pain in Spain remains Q4’s GDP figures confirmed that Spain is one of a dwindling group of economies still in recession. And with its economic imbalances still largely intact, a meaningful recovery remains a distant... 11th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What would a Greek bail-out look like? Speculation that a bail-out of Greece may be imminent has moved the focus on to exactly what form a rescue package may take. The precise details of any bail-out might have important implications for... 9th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is France next in the markets’ sights? As worries about the public finances spread throughout the euro-zone, France is the latest to edge on to the radar screens. Given a relatively low stock of debt and healthy economic outlook, its... 8th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB rate hikes still a very distant prospect The ECB is set to announce further plans to phase out unconventional policy support after its meeting next month. But with the Bank’s call for fiscal consolidation highlighting the downward pressure... 4th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update EC’s endorsement won’t fully relieve Greek worries The European Commission’s endorsement of the Greek Government’s plan to get its public finances under control is unlikely to relieve market concerns over Greece’s position altogether. 3rd February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Greece close to breaking point? Fears that the further rise in Greek bond yields over the last week has stretched the public finances to breaking point may be a little over-done. Nonetheless, Greece still faces an enormous challenge... 2nd February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update French consumers leading the way France is one of few economies that seem to be experiencing a consumer revival. Sadly, fiscal tightening will prevent the recovery from gaining much momentum. But a fairly healthy household sector... 1st February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) December’s euro-zone money supply figures and January’s ECB Bank Lending Survey suggest that credit conditions in the region remain very tight, despite the ECB’s unlimited provision of liquidity to... 29th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Greece really so much worse? The recent blow-out in Greek Government bond spreads seems to over-do the depth of its fiscal problems compared to those of other crisis economies like Ireland. But Greece has clearly lost the markets... 28th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portugal’s Budget won’t dispel market worries The markets and credit rating agencies had been looking to yesterday’s budget for confirmation that the Portuguese Government is prepared to follow other fiscally strained euro-zone economies in... 27th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will a delay in German tax cuts prevent the recovery? Hints from the German Government that promised income tax cuts could be put off until at least next year make a convincing consumer revival seem even less likely. But we still expect a relatively... 25th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spanish house prices have further to fall The latest Spanish housing market data suggest that the residential property downturn continued to ease in the latter part of 2009. Nonetheless, we think that house prices still have much further to... 15th January 2010 · 1 min read
