Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Danish elections won’t alter fiscal outlook Denmark’s forthcoming general election appears to be an increasingly close contest. But the consensus between the two major parties on many issues means that the result is unlikely to alter the... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Forget the primary surplus, Greece’s debt is unsustainable The focus on the precise targets for the primary budget surplus in the negotiations between Greece and its creditors overlooks the fact that, unless the economy experiences a miracle, its debt ratio... 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italian households will be slow to feel recovery Italy’s economy looks set to grow again in Q2. But households there will remain under enormous pressure for the foreseeable future, which has implications for the strength of the recovery and support... 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Draghi sends dovish message that ECB may extend QE ECB President Mario Draghi gave a dovish message today that the Governing Council remains cautious over the strength of the euro-zone economic recovery and intends to implement its quantitative easing... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Banking bailout funds no substitute for Greek debt relief The mooted reallocation of unused banking bailout funds could boost the amount of cash provided to Greece in a forthcoming deal with its creditors and hence buy it some valuable additional time. But... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (May) The latest euro-zone fiscal data showed that most of the peripheral countries made fiscal progress at the start of Q2, after a mixed performance in Q1. But Greece’s position is still looking... 2nd June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek deal unlikely to tackle debt mountain Last night’s meeting between Greece’s creditors may have been an important step towards reaching a proposal to release the country’s final bailout payment. But the risk of failure is still high and... 2nd June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) April’s euro-zone monetary data suggest that the region’s economic recovery will continue. But the continued lack of an agreement between Greece and its creditors poses a significant risk to the... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How vulnerable is the ECB to a Greek default? The ECB’s exposure to Greece is not huge and ultimately lies with the euro-zone governments that would have to recapitalise it. But a Greek default to the ECB would be a serious blow to the Bank’s... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank policy easing will need to be more aggressive The Riksbank’s third round of government bond buying got underway today. But we doubt that the programme will be enough to prevent the krona from appreciating and thereby depressing inflation. 21st May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB minutes reaffirm intention to see QE through The minutes (or “account”) of the ECB’s monetary policy meeting on 14th and 15th April underscored the message already given by Mario Draghi and colleagues, in the press conference after the meeting... 21st May 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank policy easing will need to be more aggressive The Riksbank’s third round of government bond buying got underway today. But we doubt that the programme will be enough to prevent the krona from appreciating and thereby depressing inflation. 21st May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update A Greek deal might be coming, but it’s only a stop-gap While a deal to address Greece’s near-term financing needs might soon emerge, this will be merely a stop-gap. The main challenge of finding a lasting solution to Greece’s debt problems lies ahead. 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Underemployment to keep a lid on German pay growth On the face of it, the recent drop in German unemployment points to a sharp rise in wages that might make ultra-loose ECB policy difficult to justify. But there is more slack in the labour market than... 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Should the ECB be happy with the first 10 weeks of QE? The ECB Governing Council has a right to be cautiously optimistic about the first ten weeks of QE. But we share its view that this does not mean that QE should end early. On the contrary, we think... 19th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would a referendum end the Greek crisis? A public referendum could help to break the current deadlock between Greece and its creditors. But it might only be a short-term solution and much could depend on its precise purpose and phrasing. 18th May 2015 · 1 min read
