Europe Commercial Property Update Belgium v the Netherlands: where is the rental value outlook best? For now, the Belgian economy is clearly outperforming its struggling neighbour, the Netherlands. But we expect both to contract this year and next, by a total of between 3% and 4%. Based on the... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update GOEF liquidations dampen medium-term European property outlook In a worst case scenario, over the next five years, some €36bn worth of European property assets could be liquidated by German open-ended property funds (GOEFs). Our downbeat views on the European... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will the rally in Bucharest office yields be reversed? The compression in office yields in Bucharest seen over the past two years is hard to reconcile with weak financial service sector activity, and the implied weakening in occupier demand. Therefore, we... 18th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update RICS Global Survey too upbeat on Polish and Czech rental values Last week’s Q1 2012 RICS Global Survey revealed a divergence in surveyors’ expectations for commercial property rental growth in Emerging Europe. We agree that the outlook is brightest in Russia and... 10th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is the Q1 fall in all-property capital values a sign of what’s to come? Euro-zone capital values suffered a fall in Q1. Although the decline was small, it was pretty widely based. As a result, it does nothing to alter our view that euro-zone commercial property markets... 8th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Negative outlook for Swiss office rents The results of the KOF survey released this morning did little to change our view that office rents will decline this year. Subdued economic growth is likely to trigger fresh weakness in the labour... 27th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are real estate equities understating the risks for 2012? An analysis of real estate equity prices suggests that our strongly negative capital value growth projections for 2012 may be pessimistic. However, since equity markets have not yet fully priced in... 23rd April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Paris property yields looking vulnerable to an economic downturn In our view, the plunge in French commercial property investment volumes in the first quarter of 2012 highlights some fundamental weaknesses in the market. And if we are right that the French economy... 18th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Downside risks to Dublin office rental value outlook increase The fact that the Irish economy slipped back into recession in the latter half of last year lends support to our view that, taking 2012 and 2013 together, Dublin office rental values will fall by a... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update No improvement in euro-zone industrial rental value outlook February’s unexpected rise in euro-zone industrial production might raise hopes that the strength of industrial occupier demand in the single currency region has improved. But we are not convinced... 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Bond sell-off adds to concerns for Spanish and Italian property prices To the extent that the latest sell-off in Spanish and Italian bonds prompts investors to steer clear of commercial property in either market, the resultant drop in liquidity is likely to put upwards... 11th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Weak service sector putting the brakes on euro-zone office rent growth This morning’s PMI data suggest that business activity in the euro-zone’s service sector remains subdued. And if the past relationships between employment PMIs and office rental value growth continue... 4th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update As good as it gets for German retail rents? February’s fall in German retail sales volumes served as a timely reminder that the strong recovery in retail rents in the euro-zone’s largest economy cannot be taken for granted. Nevertheless, while... 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are Polish retail occupier market conditions as healthy as they seem? Yesterday’s retail sales data from Poland suggest that occupier demand for retail floorspace in Warsaw is still strong relative to most of Europe. But the big picture is that consumer spending growth... 27th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Still no sign of a recovery in Budapest office rental values 2011 was a record-breaking year for take-up in the Budapest office market. Yet this failed to drive any form of recovery in office rents. Unfortunately, with employment set to fall and occupier... 26th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are things starting to look up for the Copenhagen retail market? Recent macroeconomic indicators from Denmark might raise hopes that the outlook for Copenhagen retail rental values has improved significantly. But with the impact of past falls in household spending... 22nd March 2012 · 1 min read
