Equities Update How much of a bubble is there really in Korean equities? While a partial unwind of earlier “excessive exuberance” may explain some of the huge swings in Korea’s equities since the Iran war began, we think the fundamentals of its earlier rally are stronger... 17th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Oil market traders bracing for prolonged disruption Extreme volatility in front-month oil prices has captured the headlines, but there have also been large moves in the shape of the oil futures curve and in the options market. As it stands, investors... 12th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Strategic reserves are no substitute for an open Strait A record-breaking release of emergency oil reserves could cushion a lack of supply from the Middle East and provide some relief to oil prices. However, this would prove temporary with prices likely to... 11th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Scenarios for the Iran war & the macro impact This note assesses the macro and commodity‑market implications of three potential scenarios for the Iran war. In the most benign – a severe but short‑lived conflict – the effects on GDP, inflation and... 10th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Market implications of three scenarios for the conflict Growing optimism that the conflict in the Middle East will be severe but short-lived has been accompanied over the past 24 hours by some retreat in the price of oil and a partial unwinding of the big... 10th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Modelling the scale of the energy market disruption This Update introduces our framework for estimating the scale of disruption to energy flows from events in the Middle East as well as three scenarios about how the conflict could play out from here... 9th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Five Key Questions on the Strait of Hormuz Following the effective “closure” of the Strait of Hormuz in the wake of renewed conflict in the Middle East, this Update answers five key questions about the potential impacts on global energy... 2nd March 2026 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update The consequences of the Middle East conflict The global economic impact of conflict in the Middle East will hinge on its effect on energy markets. If oil stays near $70-$80 per barrel, DM inflation will be only about 0.2-0.3 percentage points... 2nd March 2026 · 8 mins read
Equities Update Weakness in China’s equities could be short-lived After a weak start to the year, we expect Chinese equities to regain their footing over the coming months, partly because their valuations aren’t especially stretched. Moreover, we expect the AI rally... 26th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Equities Update AI vs dotcom: EM equities may hold up better this time While the recent underperformance of US tech stocks relative to Emerging Markets (EMs) echoes the eve of the dotcom bust, we think the AI rally still has a bit further to run. That said, if the AI... 18th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Equities Update What to make of diverging confidence and the stock market While the post-pandemic divergence between consumers’ confidence and the health of the stock market in the US is striking, we doubt the old relationship between the two will re-establish itself in... 17th February 2026 · 6 mins read
Equities Update What share issuance can tell us about the AI bubble One warning sign that a bubble is close to bursting is high and rising gross equity issuance; that was a feature, for example, during the dotcom bubble and the “non-profitable tech” bubble in 2020-21... 23rd January 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Your questions about tensions over Greenland We hosted an online Drop-In session today to discuss escalating tensions over Greenland and their economic implications. (Recording available here.) This Update provides answers to some of the... 19th January 2026 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update Indian equities: another year of underperformance ahead India’s equity market ended 2025 with its worst underperformance relative to its emerging market peers in three decades. Although we expect India’s economy to remain a global outperformer in 2026, we... 15th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea’s equity rally: what comes next? Korea’s equity market has delivered an exceptional rally this year, driven by the restoration of political stability, long-overdue corporate governance reforms and strong exposure to the global AI... 22nd December 2025 · 3 mins read
Equities Update A closer look at the tech boom in EM equities In our view, the AI bubble in emerging Market (EM) equities, which drove much of this year’s rally, hasn’t burst yet and could inflate further next year. And while large valuation gaps vis-à-vis the... 19th December 2025 · 4 mins read
