Equities Update What share issuance can tell us about the AI bubble One warning sign that a bubble is close to bursting is high and rising gross equity issuance; that was a feature, for example, during the dotcom bubble and the “non-profitable tech” bubble in 2020-21... 23rd January 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Your questions about tensions over Greenland We hosted an online Drop-In session today to discuss escalating tensions over Greenland and their economic implications. (Recording available here.) This Update provides answers to some of the... 19th January 2026 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update Indian equities: another year of underperformance ahead India’s equity market ended 2025 with its worst underperformance relative to its emerging market peers in three decades. Although we expect India’s economy to remain a global outperformer in 2026, we... 15th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea’s equity rally: what comes next? Korea’s equity market has delivered an exceptional rally this year, driven by the restoration of political stability, long-overdue corporate governance reforms and strong exposure to the global AI... 22nd December 2025 · 3 mins read
Equities Update A closer look at the tech boom in EM equities In our view, the AI bubble in emerging Market (EM) equities, which drove much of this year’s rally, hasn’t burst yet and could inflate further next year. And while large valuation gaps vis-à-vis the... 19th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Bonds & Equities Three key themes for financial markets in 2026 We think the AI bubble will keep inflating, and that 2026 will be another good year for risk more broadly. Meanwhile, we expect the bond market to keep muddling through, and the dollar to rebound... 16th December 2025 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Three reasons to be positive on Japan’s markets Although they’ve struggled lately, we think the yen and Japanese equities will fare well next year, and that JGBs will outperform many other developed-market bonds in common-currency terms too. 4th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Equities Update S&P 500 valuation breadth gives cause for optimism While the S&P 500 has become increasingly concentrated in terms of earnings and market capitalisation, high valuations have not concentrated in the same way. Instead, there has been broad-based... 26th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Equities Update Why a hawkish Fed may be good news for stocks Even if the Fed were to deliver less easing than the ~90bp currently priced into financial markets over the coming year, history suggests that wouldn’t prevent further strong gains from the US equity... 25th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Equities Update What if the AI stock market boom turned to bust? If the AI stock market boom turned to bust, we suspect the correction would be somewhat smaller but significantly shorter-lived than the one that took place after the dotcom bubble burst. 21st November 2025 · 6 mins read
Equities Update Why we aren’t worried about US tech valuations The recent plunge in US tech stocks seems partly due to concern about their valuations which, by some metrics, had looked their most stretched since the “dotcom bubble”. This Update argues that those... 19th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update How to think about AI investment The surge in AI investment has so far been more apparent in company reports of nominal CapEx than in real investment in the wider economy. But the latter impact is growing. And while individual... 12th November 2025 · 11 mins read
Bonds & Equities Making sense of the changing nature of the AI capex boom US hyperscalers are increasingly using leases as an alternative to capital spending. This Update considers why that is happening and its implications for them, the lessors, and the economy more... 31st October 2025 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update China’s equities have more to gain as tensions ease We think China’s equities stand to benefit more than those in the US from any further easing in US-China tensions. That said, we still think the US stock market will outperform China’s over the next... 31st October 2025 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update France’s stock market likely to remain a laggard France’s financial markets have been under the cosh for much of 2025, as political gridlock in parliament has kept the door revolving at the Matignon. Equities have not gone unscathed, with the bond... 27th October 2025 · 6 mins read
Bonds & Equities Canaries in the coalmine or a storm in a teacup? We doubt that the recent turbulence in financial markets and credit losses in the US will mark an imminent end to the AI-driven equity market surge, although recent developments illustrate that the... 24th October 2025 · 4 mins read
