Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary's easing cycle at an end, policy to stay extremely loose The National Bank of Hungary cut its benchmark interest rate by more than both we and the consensus expected earlier today, but followed this up with comments that its two-year long easing cycle is... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fresh sanctions add headwinds to Russia’s growth outlook June’s activity data have dented hopes of a sustained recovery in the Russian economy. A meaningful turnaround will require a significant rise in investment. But the latest round of sanctions on... 17th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey cuts rates, but easing cycle looks unsustainable The Turkish central bank continued to loosen monetary conditions today and pressure from the government means that further rate cuts look likely over the coming months. However, given the backdrop of... 17th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine’s rate hike highlights fragile external position The decision by the National Bank of Ukraine to raise its discount rate earlier today serves as a reminder that, in spite of some positive developments over the past couple of months, the country’s... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Region's fragile banks come under scrutiny The vulnerabilities in Emerging Europe’s banking sectors have come back into the spotlight in recent weeks. However, our latest Banking Heat Map shows that while there are some parts of the region... 14th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A more challenging second half of the year The latest batch of activity data suggests that growth in Central Europe may be losing steam. Coming alongside signs that the German economy is also losing momentum, this suggests that the pace of the... 9th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish price pressures weak, but don't point to outright deflation Recent concerns about the risk of deflation in Poland have prompted the National Bank to raise the possibility of a cut in interest rates later in the year. As it happens, most indicators of... 8th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Private sector debt still a major concern in parts of the region Domestic demand has been subdued across much of Emerging Europe over the past five years in part due to the fact that households and firms have been deleveraging following the credit boom of the past... 7th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What more can the Czech National Bank do? The Czech National Bank (CNB) struck a dovish note at last week’s MPC meeting and is clearly concerned about the threat of deflation. For now, we suspect that the Bank is unlikely to take further... 4th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish monetary policy to remain extremely supportive The National Bank of Poland’s MPC struck a dovish note at this afternoon’s post-meeting pressconference, with Governor Belka flagging the possibility of an interest rate cut in the coming months... 2nd July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update June PMIs suggest Central Europe’s recovery is losing steam Last month’s manufacturing PMI data for Emerging Europe were disappointing. The recovery in Central Europe appears to have lost momentum in Q2, while the data provide further evidence that the Turkish... 1st July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC strikes a dovish note Having kept interest rates on hold earlier today, the Czech MPC maintained its dovish stance at the post meeting press conference. Given the subdued outlook for inflation, monetary conditions are... 26th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine’s economy remains fragile despite positive political steps A series of conciliatory remarks from both the Russian and Ukrainian authorities in recent days has given rise to hopes that tensions in Eastern Ukraine may start to ease. But despite promising signs... 25th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Recent increase in oil price poses little threat to EM inflation The recent increase in oil prices is unlikely to have much of an impact on EM inflation, which in most places looks set to remain fairly benign. 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Interest rates in Hungary to remain low Having cut its benchmark interest rate earlier today, the National Bank of Hungary gave a pretty clear signal in the accompanying communiqué that further rate cuts are on the cards and that monetary... 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets shrug off Poland’s political scandal The muted reaction in the financial markets to the scandal currently engulfing the Polish government is testament to the economy’s underlying strength as well as the quality of the country’s... 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
