Asia Economics Update Strong Asian export data, but will it last? Taiwan new export orders picked up again in February, but we don’t expect this strength to continue as high oil prices start to weigh on consumer spending around the world. Meanwhile, the risks to... 21st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan hikes rates, but further tightening to be gradual Taiwan’s central bank today unexpectedly raised its main policy rate by 25bps to 1.375%, but we doubt this is the start of an aggressive tightening cycle given the mounting downside risks to growth... 17th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia to tighten policy gradually Bank Indonesia (BI) left interest rates unchanged at 3.5% at its meeting today, and the weakness of inflation and strong performance of the rupiah mean the tightening cycle is likely to be very... 17th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Inflation now the biggest concern for the BoK Concerns about inflation in Korea are rising, just as those about financial stability risks are starting to recede. Despite the worsening growth outlook caused by the surge in energy prices and war in... 14th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: new president a clear break from Moon Yoon Suk-yeol’s victory in yesterday’s presidential election should lead to a shift away from the bigger, and more active state that began under President Moon. But the lack of a parliamentary... 10th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: central bank to resume tightening cycle soon The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) today left interest rates on hold, but the surge in oil prices mean it is likely to resume its tightening cycle soon. Drop-In (8 March, 10:00 EST/15:00 GMT): We’re... 8th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update More hikes in Sri Lanka unlikely to prevent default With inflation surging, the currency coming under downward pressure and the country on the verge of a sovereign default, today’s 100bp rate hike in Sri Lanka won’t be the last in the current cycle... 4th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Rate hikes in Malaysia this year remain unlikely Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) today left its main policy rate on hold and the dovish tone of its statement supports our non-consensus view that rates will remain on hold throughout 2022. We think the... 3rd March 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea: a very hawkish hold A large upwards revision to the Bank of Korea’s (BoK) inflation forecast as it left rates on hold today signals that more tightening is just around the corner. We still expect three more 25bp hikes in... 24th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan export orders unlikely to keep rising rapidly Taiwan new export orders picked up for a third straight month in January. While we expect this trend to go into reverse soon, a large backlog of unmet orders will keep the region’s exporters busy... 21st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Singapore: ageing population prompts tax hikes The centrepiece of Singapore’s budget today was confirmation that the Goods and Service Tax will rise next year and again in 2024. The hike is intended to help pay for an increase in healthcare... 18th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: no rate hikes this year The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) left its main policy rate unchanged at 2.0% today and we expect rates to be left on hold throughout 2022. In contrast, the consensus is expecting 50bps of... 17th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia to tighten policy gradually Bank Indonesia left interest rates unchanged at 3.5% at its meeting today, and the weakness of inflation means the tightening cycle is likely to be very gradual. 10th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: rates to stay low despite jump in inflation The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left its policy rate unchanged today at 0.5%, and despite the recent rebound in inflation, we expect interest rates will remain on hold for some time to come. 9th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Inflation a worry in South Asia, but less so elsewhere Inflation is a growing concern for policymakers in South Asia and means interest rates are likely to rise further this year. Elsewhere in Asia, inflation remains low and is likely to fall back over... 8th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Surprise move by the MAS likely not its last in 2022 The Monetary Authority of Singapore’s (MAS) surprise move to tighten policy today, ahead of its usual April meeting, probably won’t be its last. We think the added uplift to inflation from a domestic... 25th January 2022 · 3 mins read
