Asia Economics Update Thailand: gradual tightening cycle ahead The Bank of Thailand hiked interest rates today by 25bp (to 0.75%), but reiterated that the tightening cycle will be gradual. We are sticking with our view that the policy rate will peak at 1.5% next... 10th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The implications of an escalating Taiwan crisis The extent to which neighbouring countries would be affected by an escalation of tensions between China and Taiwan would depend both on which sides they take and on the nature of restrictions imposed... 10th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics How much does Taiwan matter? Taiwan matters far more to the world economy than its 1% share of global GDP would A further escalation in cross-strait tensions that cut Taiwan’s export off from the rest of the world would lead to... 8th August 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update China doesn’t appear to want an economic fight The trade sanctions introduced by China on Taiwan in retaliation for the visit of Nancy Pelosi are small in scope rather than serious efforts to force Taipei to shift course. China is constrained in... 3rd August 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: inflation peaks, tightening cycle nearing end Consumer price inflation in Korea increased to a new 24-year high last month, but we think it has now peaked. With headwinds to the economy mounting, we believe that the central bank’s tightening... 2nd August 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Dovish BI leaves rates on hold, gradual tightening ahead Bank Indonesia (BI) left interest rates unchanged again today, and the dovish commentary from the press conference means we are pushing back the timing for the first hike from Q3 into Q4. With growth... 21st July 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Questions (and answers) on the turmoil in Sri Lanka We held a Drop-In earlier today to discuss recent developments in Sri Lanka, where the economic and political crisis is going from bad to worse. This Update answers several of the questions that we... 14th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Tough times ahead as Pakistan agrees IMF deal The resumption of the loan deal between Pakistan and the IMF should put the economy back on a more secure footing and limit the biggest downside risks. But the cuts to government spending that the... 14th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: more tightening ahead as BSP turns hawkish The decision by the central bank in the Philippines to raise its benchmark policy rate by a further 75bp (to 3.25%) at an unscheduled meeting reflects mounting concerns about inflation. Further hikes... 14th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update MAS tightens even as economy stagnates The city-state’s economy unexpectedly stagnated in the second quarter but this didn’t prevent the MAS from tightening monetary policy today in a bid to tackle high inflation. While we expect output to... 14th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea: tightening cycle to finish by year-end The Bank of Korea today raised its main policy rate by 50bp (to 2.25%), and further hikes are likely in the near term given worries about inflation. But with economic growth set to slow and inflation... 13th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: Further hikes likely as IMF deal nears The State Bank of Pakistan today raised its main policy rate by 125bps (to 15.0%), and made clear that fighting inflation would remain its priority. Given that inflation looks set to rise further in... 7th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: rate hikes not enough to restore stability The central bank in Sri Lanka (CBSL) today raised its benchmark lending facility rate by a further 100bp (to 15.5%), and with inflation running at over 50%, more tightening seems likely. However, rate... 7th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: rate hikes not enough to restore stability The central bank in Sri Lanka (CBSL) today raised its benchmark lending facility rate by a further 100bp (to 15.5%), and with inflation running at over 50%, more tightening seems likely. However, rate... 7th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia: central bank signals gradual tightening cycle Bank Negara Malaysia today raised its main policy rate by 25bps to 2.25% and reiterated that further tightening would be gradual. With the economy on the mend but inflation still low, we are sticking... 6th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam: on the mend Economic growth in Vietnam accelerated in the second quarter of the year, thanks mainly to a reopening boost and continued strong export demand. We expect the recovery to continue over the coming... 29th June 2022 · 2 mins read
