Event Drop-In: South Africa’s 2025 Budget – Fiscal risks, macro and market consequences 12th March 2025, 4:30PM GMT After last month’s shock postponement, South African Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana is finally expected to present a 2025 national budget on 12th March. But the ANC and DA have been arguing about…
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Dec' 24) The smaller-than-expected rise in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 3.0% y/y, in November, combined with the recent recovery in the rand, supports our view that the SARB can continue with its... 22nd January 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Dec '24.) The further rise in Nigeria’s headline inflation rate, to 34.8% y/y in December, raises the risk that the central bank pushes ahead with one last interest rate hike at their next meeting in February... 15th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa GDP (Q3 2024) South Africa’s economy recorded a surprise contraction of 0.3% q/q in Q3, but that was largely due to a steep decline in agricultural output. The rest of the economy held up much better and we expect... 3rd December 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response Nigeria GDP (Q3 2024) Nigeria recorded a surprise pick-up in GDP growth to 3.5% y/y in Q3 as stronger growth in the non-oil economy more than offset a slowdown in the oil sector. We expect growth to remain soft until the... 25th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Oct. '24) The drop in South Africa’s headline inflation, to 2.8% y/y, in October, will make it harder for the SARB to strike a hawkish tone regarding inflation pressures at its monetary policy committee meeting... 20th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Oct' 24) Nigeria’s headline inflation picked up for a second consecutive month, to 33.9% y/y in October, largely due to the impact of rising petrol prices. The CBN now appears to have little choice but... 15th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Sep. '24) The drop in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 3.8% y/y, in September, means that the SARB will almost certainly continue its easing cycle. The chances of a 50bp cut at its the next meeting... 23rd October 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Sep. '24) Nigeria’s headline inflation picked up to 32.7% y/y in September, confirming that the CBN’s fears about upside risks from last month’s petrol price hikes were not misplaced. We think the CBN will... 15th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI rebounded in August, finally replicating the improvements we have seen in other survey indicators. A backdrop of interest rate cuts and improving supply conditions... 1st October 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response S. Africa Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.'24) 19th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Aug' 24.) The dip in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 4.4% y/y, in August and the further decline in core inflation all but seals the deal on the SARB start an easing cycle tomorrow. We have pencilled... 18th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (August '24) Nigeria’s headline inflation rate dipped to 32.2% y/y in August, confirming the disinflation trend is firmly on course as the pass through from previous sharp falls in the naira continues to fade... 16th September 2024 · 2 mins read
