Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s rates on hold ahead of general election The upcoming general election may have influenced the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN’s) decision to leave interest rates unchanged today. We suspect that once the election is out of the way, monetary... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa GDP Tracker points to acceleration in Q4 GDP growth in South Africa seems to have picked up in Q4 2014, but this acceleration is unlikely to last into 2015. Growth was flattered by base effects and we expect that lasting structural... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Decline in oil prices not a disaster for Nigeria’s public finances The dramatic fall in oil prices since last summer will take a significant chunk out of the Nigerian government’s tax receipts, but we do not think it will be disastrous. Although measures to boost non... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update How damaging have strikes been to South Africa? Strike action in South Africa may have knocked as much as half a percentage point off GDP growth over 2014 as a whole. As long as industrial action does not reach a similar scale this year, growth... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update How damaging have strikes been to South Africa? Strike action in South Africa may have knocked as much as half a percentage point off GDP growth over 2014 as a whole. As long as industrial action does not reach a similar scale this year, growth... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update What to expect from Nigeria’s election Next month’s general election in Nigeria looks set to be the closest since democracy returned to the country in 1999. There is a clear risk that the outcome leads to a repeat of the violence around... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Currencies continue to tumble African currencies have struggled again this month, with the South African rand coming under fire due to renewed concerns about the country’s current account deficit. Meanwhile, further falls in oil... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update How South Africa stands to gain from the slump in oil prices The sharp slide in oil prices will help to lower inflation in South Africa and is likely to make a significant dent in the country’s current account deficit. But while this may ease concerns about the... 9th December 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Fall in oil prices likely to push Angola into recession Angola will be one of the hardest hit EMs by the sharp fall in oil prices and we doubt that the authorities will be able to finance the likely current account deficit for more than a couple of years... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update What low oil prices mean for sub-Saharan Africa Dramatic falls in oil prices have already taken a heavy toll on Nigeria, where the central bank was forced to devalue the naira and raise interest rates to slow the currency’s decline. As we show in... 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Further monetary tightening probably needed in Nigeria The Central Bank of Nigeria raised interest rates and devalued the naira in order to reduce the pressure on the currency and stem the depletion of its foreign exchange reserves. But we suspect that... 25th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigerian naira weakness likely to prompt rate hike tomorrow We think that the Central Bank of Nigeria will respond to the recent slump in the naira by raising interest rates tomorrow. Our best guess is that interest rates will rise from 12.00% to 13.50%, but... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa holds rates, but signals tightening on the way The Reserve Bank of South Africa left interest rates on hold at 5.75% today, but Governor Kganyago made it fairly clear that he expects monetary policy to tighten next year. A sluggish domestic... 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigerian naira under fire A number of African currencies have struggled this month, with the Nigerian naira hit hardest as the central bank has scaled back its FX intervention dramatically. Nigeria’s bonds have also sold off... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana rate hike more presentational than practical Earlier today, the Bank of Ghana raised its headline policy rate from 19% to 21% – the highest level since January 2004. As it happens, the move was more presentational than practical and is unlikely... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa gets serious about fiscal consolidation South Africa’s Medium Term Budget (MTB), announced last month, received a mixed reception. Government bond yields fell slightly on the day it was announced. But last week, Moody’s downgraded South... 10th November 2014 · 1 min read
