China's economy is slowing, but not collapsing. Domestic demand remains weak, the property downturn continues to weigh on growth, and deflationary pressures persist. Yet exports remain remarkably strong, helping to drive a growing trade surplus and raising questions about how long the rest of the world will tolerate China's expanding global footprint.
In this week's Capital Economics Weekly Briefing, Neil Shearing is joined by Julian Evans-Pritchard, Head of China Economics at Capital Economics, and Erik Britton, CEO and Chief Economist at Fathom Consulting. They discuss Capital Economics' central outlook for China and introduce the new China Economic Scenarios service, developed in partnership with Fathom.
The conversation explores six possible futures for China's economy, from a renewed export-led boom to a world in which China is increasingly shut out of global supply chains. Along the way, they examine the outlook for growth, inflation and trade tensions, and explain why scenario analysis can help investors navigate an increasingly uncertain global environment.
Topics covered:
- Why China's domestic economy remains under pressure
- The outlook for exports and trade surpluses
- Deflation risks and the prospects for inflation
- How rising geopolitical tensions could reshape China's future
- The six scenarios featured in the new China Economic Scenarios service
- What China's future means for the global economy and financial markets
