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China Economic Scenarios

China Economic Scenarios, powered by Fathom Consulting

The service brings together Capital Economics’ best-in-class research and proprietary data with Fathom Consulting’s scenario modelling and in-depth insight on China. It contains six thematic scenarios, with detailed forecasts and analysis of what each scenario would mean for China’s economy.

The scenarios this quarter are:

  • Central case: Japanification-lite, structural headwinds continue to drag
  • Bifurcation blues: a hard decoupling of China from the US and its allies
  • MIC marvel: China’s push into frontier technologies pays off
  • Oil shock: oil prices surge on the back of even greater supply disruptions
  • AI bubble bursts: AI valuations collapse and global AI investment slumps
  • AI upside: the AI revolution transforms productivity

Q4 2026

Capital Economics China subscribers can access our current China Economic Scenarios and downloadable Excel data. If you are interested in our China Economic Scenarios, but this sits outside of your current subscription, please get in touch with your Client Experience Manager, or email us below.

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Crossroads lit up in Shanghai

Capital Economics China Scenarios, powered by Fathom Consulting

A partnership that delivers both quantitative and qualitative analysis on China to our clients - Six plausible shocks, consistent macro forecasts, clear implications for China and the world.

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