China Economic Scenarios, powered by Fathom Consulting
The service brings together Capital Economics’ best-in-class research and proprietary data with Fathom Consulting’s scenario modelling and in-depth insight on China. It contains six thematic scenarios, with detailed forecasts and analysis of what each scenario would mean for China’s economy.
The scenarios this quarter are:
- Central case: Japanification-lite, structural headwinds continue to drag
- Bifurcation blues: a hard decoupling of China from the US and its allies
- MIC marvel: China’s push into frontier technologies pays off
- Oil shock: oil prices surge on the back of even greater supply disruptions
- AI bubble bursts: AI valuations collapse and global AI investment slumps
- AI upside: the AI revolution transforms productivity