Middle East Economics Focus How can Egypt unlock its economic potential? Egyptian policymakers’ commitment (or lack of) to economic orthodoxy continues to provide cause for concern and, while we don’t share the view that sovereign default is a serious risk, the near-term... 20th July 2023 · 19 mins read
Middle East Economics Focus Egypt to suffer short-term economic pain Spillovers from the war in Ukraine and tighter external financing conditions have exacerbated strains in Egypt’s balance of payments and we think the pound needs to fall a lot further. This will add... 13th October 2022 · 15 mins read
Middle East Economics Focus Saudi economy set for a strong couple of years Saudi Arabia’s economic recovery is likely to be one of the strongest in the emerging world over the next couple of years as oil output is ramped up and fiscal policy is loosened. We expect GDP growth... 9th June 2022 · 15 mins read
Middle East Economics Focus Egyptian pound’s rally to go into reverse The Egyptian pound has appreciated significantly since the devaluation in 2016 and there are signs that the strength of the currency is weighing on the country’s external competitiveness. We forecast... 15th June 2021 · 9 mins read
Middle East Economics Focus Tunisia heading for a debt restructuring Tunisia’s public finances have deteriorated further during the COVID-19 crisis and, with the government unlikely to be able to push through much-needed fiscal austerity, a debt restructuring looks... 18th March 2021 · 16 mins read
Middle East Economics Focus The Arab Spring: 10 years on Ten years on from the “Arab Spring” uprisings that afflicted large swathes of the Middle East and North Africa, hopes for a shift to democracy that would unleash reforms and transform the region’s... 17th December 2020 · 17 mins read
Global Economics Focus Lasting blow to supply capacity is not inevitable It is by no means inevitable that the coronavirus crisis puts a big permanent hole in the supply capacity of economies (i.e. their ability to produce goods and services). With the right government... 29th June 2020 · 28 mins read
Middle East Economics Focus Is Dubai facing another debt crisis? Efforts to contain the coronavirus will cause Dubai’s economy to contract sharply, exacerbating overcapacity in key sectors and making it more difficult for the Emirate’s government-related entities... 20th April 2020 · 18 mins read
Middle East Economics Focus Why Lebanon is heading for a debt restructuring The recent protests in Lebanon highlight that it is politically impossible to push through the fiscal austerity needed to stabilise the government’s debt-to-GDP ratio. A debt restructuring is... 23rd October 2019 · 14 mins read
Middle East Economics Focus Assessing the potential impact of a US-Iran war War with the US would cause a collapse in Iran’s economy that would directly knock around 0.3%-pts off global GDP – equal to the damage from the US-China trade war so far. More important to the rest... 20th September 2019 · 23 mins read
Middle East Economics Focus Egypt: improved fiscal health to support faster growth The recent improvement in Egypt’s budget position will be enough to keep the government’s debt ratio on a downward trend. Government bond yields are likely to fall and austerity looks set to come to... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East Economics Focus Can the Gulf economies weather the slump in oil prices? The latest slump in oil prices is unlikely to lead to major balance sheet strains in the largest Gulf economies and, even if prices fall further to $40-50pb, dollar pegs shouldn’t come under threat... 26th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East Economics Focus Qatar: A year on from the blockade One year after the diplomatic crisis surrounding Qatar first erupted, the economy appears to have weathered the storm. An escalation of the crisis remains the key threat to the economic outlook, but... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East Economics Focus Egypt: what to expect from al-Sisi’s second term? Egypt’s President al-Sisi is certain to emerge victorious in next week’s election and will begin his second term just as the economy is about to enjoy a cyclical upturn in growth. Beyond the next few... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East Economics Focus Saudi recovery on the way – but relief to be short-lived Saudi Arabia’s economy should pull out of recession this year as the drag from the oil sector fades and fiscal policy is loosened. But the relief is likely to prove short-lived and, in contrast to the... 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East Economics Focus Saudi politics emerges as key economic risk Saudi politics has been a staid affair for decades, but Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s launch of an anti-corruption crackdown and his ratcheting up of tensions with Iran herald a period of greater... 12th December 2017 · 1 min read
