France's crisisFrench bond yields soar as protesters take to the streets The France's crisis series Europe Economics Update How will France be forced to tighten fiscal policy? We expect France to be forced into a substantial fiscal consolidation in the coming years. This would be a drag on economic growth, but the scale of that drag would depend, among other things, on... 5th November 2026 · 4 mins read Global Economics Update France's fiscal warning to the rest of the world The sell-off in French bonds is a warning for governments elsewhere, but we doubt it is the start of a broad fiscal crisis. Few advanced economies have comparably poor fiscal arithmetic, and those... 27th October 2026 · 4 mins read Europe Economics Update Why is France being singled out by bond markets? Rising interest rates and weak growth have made debt dynamics more challenging everywhere. What makes France stand out are the size of the fiscal adjustment needed to stabilise the debt ratio and the... 26th October 2026 · 3 mins read Europe Economics Weekly No quick fix in sight for France; ECB to hold rates This week’s PMI data suggest that France’s political and fiscal crises are taking an increasing toll on the economic outlook. And with little prospect of meaningful fiscal consolidation before next... 23rd October 2026 · 7 mins read Capital Daily French sovereign bonds not OAT of the woods While renewed hopes of a peace in the Middle East and lower energy prices have brought some relief to government bond markets today, the widening of the spread between French sovereign bonds and those... 20th October 2026 · 4 mins read Europe Economics Update How big are the contagion risks from France? France appears to be heading for a fiscal crisis which could lead to contagion and potentially a recession in the euro-zone. However, several factors mean the contagion risks to other countries’ bond... 19th October 2026 · 3 mins read Europe Economics Update When would the ECB intervene in bond markets? Bond markets are a long way from needing ECB intervention – in the recent past, policymakers have only got twitchy when 10-year sovereign spreads were around 250bp. If spreads approached those levels... 13th October 2026 · 5 mins read Other work on European economies UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (5th Nov. 2026) 5th November 2026 · 3 mins read Climate Economics Update COP31 struggles for relevance The forthcoming COP31 climate conference risks being overshadowed by the fallout from the US midterms. In any case, the more consequential developments for the green transition are continuing to take... 5th November 2026 · 3 mins read Europe Economics Update How will France be forced to tighten fiscal policy? We expect France to be forced into a substantial fiscal consolidation in the coming years. This would be a drag on economic growth, but the scale of that drag would depend, among other things, on... 5th November 2026 · 4 mins read UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/CIPS UK Construction PMI (October 26) Having improved in September, the headline construction PMI fell back in October. At 43.6, the level was the lowest since June. Both the commercial and housing activity balances worsened over the... 5th November 2026 · 1 min read Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: Q3 growth stumble not huge cause for concern Despite the disappointing Q3 GDP figures, we still think that Hungary’s economic outlook has fundamentally improved since Tisza’s election victory in April. We expect growth to strengthen to 2.5% next... 5th November 2026 · 2 mins read UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Nov. 2026) While the economy has been remarkably resilient to higher interest rates and borrowing costs, the coming rise in CPI inflation is likely to dampen real GDP growth from 1.5% this year as a whole to 1.0... 4th November 2026 · 1 min read Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Nov. 2026) The decision by the National Bank of Poland to leave the policy rate at 3.75% is likely to be followed by large upwards revisions to inflation projections in the post-meeting statement due later today... 4th November 2026 · 2 mins read Europe Economics Update New housing measures won’t fix Spain’s supply problems Spain’s new rent controls will do little to ease the country’s worsening housing shortage. While the government has pledged nearly €900mn in support for homebuilding and social housing, that will... 4th November 2026 · 3 mins read Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (October 2026) October’s euro-zone HICP data confirm that the indirect effects of higher energy costs on food and core inflation remain very small. While these effects will probably build in the coming months, we... 4th November 2026 · 2 mins read Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (October 2026) The larger-than-expected rise in Swiss inflation in October was primarily due to a rise in energy inflation. Underlying price pressures remain weak so we are confident in our view that the SNB will... 3rd November 2026 · 2 mins read UK Commercial Property Update Retail to outperform leisure as sales of goods hold up The outlook for retail property is firmer than headline consumption data suggest. Households are cutting back more on leisure services than on goods, so retail sales should keep outpacing overall... 2nd November 2026 · 3 mins read Europe Economics Update EZ labour market is cooling The euro-zone’s unemployment rate is close to a record low, but it has risen slightly and the latest surveys point to the labour market getting looser. This is a key reason why we think the risk of... 2nd November 2026 · 2 mins read Capital Daily The bond market’s troubles may be drawing to a close We continue to think that less-hawkish-than-expected monetary policy and the bursting AI bubble will give bonds a further boost over time. 2nd November 2026 · 5 mins read Europe Economics Weekly Indirect effects of energy prices still modest National inflation data published today suggest that the euro-zone inflation rate will have risen to 4.0% in October and there is growing evidence that higher energy prices are pushing up inflation... 30th October 2026 · 7 mins read UK Economics Weekly Interest rate hikes and the two-speed economy The impending interest rate hikes from the Bank of England may exacerbate the two-speed economy by weighing on consumer spending by more than business investment. So over the next year or so, the... 30th October 2026 · 4 mins read Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Political deadlock in Israel, CEE tightening in focus Israel’s election this week delivered no clear winner. While political uncertainty won’t have much bearing on the country’s security strategy or near-term economic outlook, it makes it less likely... 30th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update How will France be forced to tighten fiscal policy? We expect France to be forced into a substantial fiscal consolidation in the coming years. This would be a drag on economic growth, but the scale of that drag would depend, among other things, on... 5th November 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update France's fiscal warning to the rest of the world The sell-off in French bonds is a warning for governments elsewhere, but we doubt it is the start of a broad fiscal crisis. Few advanced economies have comparably poor fiscal arithmetic, and those... 27th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Why is France being singled out by bond markets? Rising interest rates and weak growth have made debt dynamics more challenging everywhere. What makes France stand out are the size of the fiscal adjustment needed to stabilise the debt ratio and the... 26th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly No quick fix in sight for France; ECB to hold rates This week’s PMI data suggest that France’s political and fiscal crises are taking an increasing toll on the economic outlook. And with little prospect of meaningful fiscal consolidation before next... 23rd October 2026 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily French sovereign bonds not OAT of the woods While renewed hopes of a peace in the Middle East and lower energy prices have brought some relief to government bond markets today, the widening of the spread between French sovereign bonds and those... 20th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update How big are the contagion risks from France? France appears to be heading for a fiscal crisis which could lead to contagion and potentially a recession in the euro-zone. However, several factors mean the contagion risks to other countries’ bond... 19th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update When would the ECB intervene in bond markets? Bond markets are a long way from needing ECB intervention – in the recent past, policymakers have only got twitchy when 10-year sovereign spreads were around 250bp. If spreads approached those levels... 13th October 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (5th Nov. 2026) 5th November 2026 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Update COP31 struggles for relevance The forthcoming COP31 climate conference risks being overshadowed by the fallout from the US midterms. In any case, the more consequential developments for the green transition are continuing to take... 5th November 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update How will France be forced to tighten fiscal policy? We expect France to be forced into a substantial fiscal consolidation in the coming years. This would be a drag on economic growth, but the scale of that drag would depend, among other things, on... 5th November 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/CIPS UK Construction PMI (October 26) Having improved in September, the headline construction PMI fell back in October. At 43.6, the level was the lowest since June. Both the commercial and housing activity balances worsened over the... 5th November 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: Q3 growth stumble not huge cause for concern Despite the disappointing Q3 GDP figures, we still think that Hungary’s economic outlook has fundamentally improved since Tisza’s election victory in April. We expect growth to strengthen to 2.5% next... 5th November 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Nov. 2026) While the economy has been remarkably resilient to higher interest rates and borrowing costs, the coming rise in CPI inflation is likely to dampen real GDP growth from 1.5% this year as a whole to 1.0... 4th November 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Nov. 2026) The decision by the National Bank of Poland to leave the policy rate at 3.75% is likely to be followed by large upwards revisions to inflation projections in the post-meeting statement due later today... 4th November 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update New housing measures won’t fix Spain’s supply problems Spain’s new rent controls will do little to ease the country’s worsening housing shortage. While the government has pledged nearly €900mn in support for homebuilding and social housing, that will... 4th November 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (October 2026) October’s euro-zone HICP data confirm that the indirect effects of higher energy costs on food and core inflation remain very small. While these effects will probably build in the coming months, we... 4th November 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (October 2026) The larger-than-expected rise in Swiss inflation in October was primarily due to a rise in energy inflation. Underlying price pressures remain weak so we are confident in our view that the SNB will... 3rd November 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Retail to outperform leisure as sales of goods hold up The outlook for retail property is firmer than headline consumption data suggest. Households are cutting back more on leisure services than on goods, so retail sales should keep outpacing overall... 2nd November 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update EZ labour market is cooling The euro-zone’s unemployment rate is close to a record low, but it has risen slightly and the latest surveys point to the labour market getting looser. This is a key reason why we think the risk of... 2nd November 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily The bond market’s troubles may be drawing to a close We continue to think that less-hawkish-than-expected monetary policy and the bursting AI bubble will give bonds a further boost over time. 2nd November 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Indirect effects of energy prices still modest National inflation data published today suggest that the euro-zone inflation rate will have risen to 4.0% in October and there is growing evidence that higher energy prices are pushing up inflation... 30th October 2026 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Interest rate hikes and the two-speed economy The impending interest rate hikes from the Bank of England may exacerbate the two-speed economy by weighing on consumer spending by more than business investment. So over the next year or so, the... 30th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Political deadlock in Israel, CEE tightening in focus Israel’s election this week delivered no clear winner. While political uncertainty won’t have much bearing on the country’s security strategy or near-term economic outlook, it makes it less likely... 30th October 2026 · 5 mins read
