Event Japan Drop-In: The Shunto, the Bank of Japan and the inflation and policy outlook 14th March 2025, 8:00AM GMT Will the Bank of Japan be doing a victory lap this year in its quest to get inflation sustainably to 2%? And how far will it ultimately raise the policy rates? As the preliminary results of this year…
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (May) & Machinery Orders (Apr.) The trade deficit narrowed for an eighth consecutive month in May as both import prices and volumes continued to fall. “Core” machinery orders rebounded in April, but that still points to a fall in... 15th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Apr. 2023) Wage growth fell in April due to a fall in overtime pay and mostly stagnant bonus payments, while regular pay growth rebounded. But labour market conditions should loosen in the second half on account... 6th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Apr. 23) April’s activity data were a mixed bag. The fall in industrial production and sharp drop in retail sales volumes pose downside risks to our Q2 GDP growth forecast. By contrast, capital goods shipments... 31st May 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Market (Apr. 2023) The unemployment rate reversed the sharp rise in March last month and the job-to-applicant ratio stabilised, but a recession in H2 should still see the unemployment rate peak at 3% by year-end. 30th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Tokyo Consumer Prices (May. 2023) Tokyo inflation fell to 3.2% in May largely due to a sharp fall in energy inflation, but inflation excluding fresh food and energy ticked up due to faster gains in “core” goods prices. We still expect... 26th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (May 2023) May’s flash PMI readings were the strongest they’d been in a while and point to gains in both industrial production and services spending, supporting our assessment that the economy continued to grow... 23rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Machinery Orders (Mar. 2023) We already know that business investment rose despite a plunge in capital goods shipments last quarter. As such, we wouldn’t read too much into the fall in machinery orders in March. The bigger... 22nd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Apr. 2023) Underlying inflation pushed past 4.0% for the first time in 40 years partly due to a spike in food inflation. Meanwhile, services inflation set a fresh 30-year high, largely reflecting higher goods... 19th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Apr. 2023) The trade deficit narrowed in April as export values rose faster than import values, largely reflecting the faster fall in import prices. Export climate readings suggest export volumes will continue... 18th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan GDP (Q1 2023 Preliminary) GDP surprised to the upside last quarter, mainly because of stronger performances in private consumption and business investment than preliminary data had indicated. That suggests that there is... 17th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Economy Watchers Survey (Apr. 2023) The further rise in both the current and outlook readings point to continued upward momentum in services spending this quarter. Meanwhile, manufacturing conditions fell slightly but remained robust... 11th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Mar. 2023) Wage growth held steady in March from February, as a further slowdown in regular and overtime pay growth was offset by a decent increase in volatile payments. We still see further scope for wage... 9th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Activity (Mar. 23) & Tokyo CPI (Apr. 23) The end-month data rush only adds to the dilemma the Bank of Japan is facing. While labour market conditions are now easing in earnest, underlying inflation is set to surpass 4% at the national level... 28th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Apr. 2023) April’s flash PMIs point to further upside risks to our GDP forecasts, indicating a broad improvement in both domestic and external demand. That suggests the exports downturn may be short-lived... 21st April 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Mar. 2023) Underlying inflation saw a sizeable increase in March, while headline inflation inched down thanks to falling energy prices. A stronger yen and falling import price inflation should still see... 21st April 2023 · 2 mins read
