Japan Chart Pack Entering Q2 on a stronger footing With mobility rebounding and the state of emergency finally being lifted across all prefectures this weekend, economic activity should enter Q2 with some momentum. While the second state of emergency... 18th March 2021 · 10 mins read
Japan Chart Pack GDP will soon be back at pre-virus path The strong rise in output in Q4 2020 to just 1.2% below Q4 2019 levels bolsters our view that Japan’s economy will be back to the level it reached before the tax hike and close to its pre-virus path... 22nd February 2021 · 10 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Falling virus cases an upside risk this quarter Our forecast for a 1.5% q/q fall in consumption in Q1 rests on the assumption that some businesses in virus hotspots will be forced to close in order to contain Japan’s most severe wave of the... 20th January 2021 · 10 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Go To Travel suspension will weigh on consumption PM Suga’s decision on Tuesday to halt the Go To Travel campaign for two weeks from 28th December may put the recovery in services spending into temporary reverse. It comes after authorities in Tokyo... 17th December 2020 · 10 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Only light-touch restrictions on horizon for now Japan is in the midst of a third wave of COVID-19. Daily infections have already reached their previous early-August peak. Only the Hokkaido Government has responded with countermeasures so far... 17th November 2020 · 10 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Rising labour costs to prevent slump in inflation Inflation has held up better than we had anticipated in recent months. The surge in spare capacity suggests that it could weaken more sharply as social distancing measures are relaxed. But we only... 12th October 2020 · 10 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Boost from fiscal support yet to be fully felt The government has issued ¥95tn in government securities since the start of the current fiscal year in April, equivalent to a huge 17% of pre-virus GDP. It intends to issue another ¥35tn by March... 17th September 2020 · 10 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Second wave not capsizing the economy Despite the reintroduction of states of emergency in some prefectures, and renewed calls for jishuku (“self-restraint”) in many others, the steps taken by local authorities to curb the “second wave”... 13th August 2020 · 11 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Chances of localised lockdowns rising With coronavirus cases hitting record-highs in Tokyo and rising in other urban areas, the government announced on Monday that it plans to give local governments greater power to request business... 21st July 2020 · 11 mins read
Japan Chart Pack The long and winding road back to normality The recent spike in COVID-19 cases in Tokyo linked to nightlife establishments in Shinjuku underlines just how slow the road back to normality could be. Renewed outbreaks are likely to prevent a... 18th June 2020 · 11 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Green shoots after Golden Week holiday Economic activity remained severely damaged by coronavirus containment efforts in early May. In particular, the retail sector usually receives a substantial boost during Golden Week but the number of... 15th May 2020 · 10 mins read
Japan Chart Pack New cases not exploding but economic hit still huge A second wave of virus cases driven by rising infections in Tokyo and Osaka has triggered a major shift in economic behaviour. And while new cases in the two lynchpins of the Japanese economy have... 17th April 2020 · 11 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Coronavirus derailing the economy Surveys and timely data from late-February onwards show that the economy is in the midst of a deep downturn. Cinema sales, restaurant reservations and the Economy Watchers Survey all point towards... 18th March 2020 · 10 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Manufacturing recovery hinges on external demand While October’s sales tax hike and Typhoon Hagibis were partly to blame for the sharp drop in manufacturing output in Q4, the bigger picture is that any recovery this year rests on a pick-up in... 17th February 2020 · 10 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Squeeze on lending margins will fuel BoJ’s concerns The fall in long-term bank lending rates in November will reinforce the concerns of some BoJ Board members that ultra-loose monetary policy is harming the profitability of private banks. November’s... 16th January 2020 · 10 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Tax hike less damaging than previous ones The available data on retail sales, household spending as well as the Bank of Japan’s consumption activity index show that consumer spending fell broadly as much in October as in April 2014, when the... 11th December 2019 · 10 mins read