Japan Chart Pack Shrinking spare capacity no reason for complacency Japan’s GDP expanded by 1.0% in 2016, which is a touch faster than the economy’s sustainable rate. We forecast a similar increase in 2017 so spare capacity should continue to decline. Helped by the... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Inflation close to bottoming out Inflation fell to fresh lows at the end of 2016, with the Bank of Japan’s favourite measure of underlying inflation turning negative in the Tokyo region on our estimates. What’s more, there are few... 12th January 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack The tide for the yen has turned The Bank of Japan’s favourite gauge of underlying price pressures remains just a touch above zero. However, spare capacity is narrowing and growth in part-time pay has started to pick up. What’s more... 12th December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Treading water Despite having a sizeable output gap, Japan’s economy has expanded at a pace no stronger than potential this year so slack in the economy has not been reduced. One reason is that consumer spending has... 10th November 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Slowdown in services inflation highlights failure of QQE Recent data suggest that the economic recovery may be a touch stronger than we had been expecting. However, there are no signs that the tight labour market is fuelling price pressures. While the Bank... 10th October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Labour market tightest since mid-1990s Japan’s labour market has been tight for a while but the unemployment rate has continued to fall and now stands at a level last seen in the mid-1990s. The latest data show a long-awaited pick-up in... 7th September 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Growth not strong enough to boost price pressures Weak survey evidence notwithstanding, the economy likely continued to recover in the second quarter, while the labour market has rarely been tighter. However, wage growth remains anaemic and the past... 8th August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Headwinds to QQE intensifying The yen has strengthened sharply since the start of the year and is now back at the level seen at the launch of Quantitative and Qualitative Easing. The resulting plunge in import prices has... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Slowdown in underlying inflation should rattle BoJ Japan’s economy is holding up reasonably well despite the recent strengthening of the yen. Meanwhile, the decision to delay the sales tax hike that had been scheduled for next April has brightened the... 6th June 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Yen reaches fresh highs against dollar The Bank of Japan’s decision to forego additional stimulus at its April meeting was a major disappointment to markets. The yen climbed to fresh highs against the dollar, while the Nikkei slumped. The... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack QQE continues to face strong headwinds Three years after the launch of Quantitative and Qualitative Easing, the Bank of Japan’s efforts to stoke price pressures are failing. Business confidence has fallen to a three-year low while the... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Recovery in the Nikkei to continue The economic recovery remains sluggish and the recent financial market turmoil seems to have dampened the mood. With the stronger yen lowering corporate profits and reducing import costs, we think the... 7th March 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Yen strengthens despite shift to negative rates The Bank of Japan’s decision to cut the interest rate on some excess reserves below zero initially delivered a slide in the exchange rate and a rise in equities. But these shifts soon reversed and the... 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Return to growth belies headwinds to inflation There are good reasons for the Bank of Japan to feel confident about the prospects of hitting its 2% inflation target. Economic activity is on the mend, the labour market is tight, and underlying... 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Economy returning to growth There is a good chance that tomorrow’s revised GDP data will show that output was broadly flat rather than falling in Q3. Whatever the outturn, the early figures point to a return to growth this... 7th December 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack BoJ’s new inflation gauge climbs to fresh high The Bank of Japan left policy settings unchanged at its end-October meeting amid tentative signs of stabilisation in manufacturing activity and an ongoing rebound in its favourite inflation measure... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read