Industrial Metals Update Copper rally not entirely divorced from reality At face value, the rally in the copper price to above its pre-virus level suggests that the coronavirus pandemic has led to an overall improvement in the metal’s fundamental outlook. While a little... 17th July 2020 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update New LME data confirm aluminium stockpile overhang New data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME) confirm our view that there has been an increase in off-exchange stocks this year, particularly for aluminium. Admittedly, there are limitations to... 16th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Still hard to be positive on lead in the long run We recently raised our price forecasts for base metals, including lead, as we now forecast a quicker economic rebound in China. And though we expect lead’s near-term price recovery to be driven by... 8th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Chinese imports add to evidence of stronger demand China’s import data are another sign that demand is bouncing back in the world’s largest metal consumer. However, in some cases, a lack of supply is restricting shipments. This is likely to become... 30th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update US-Canada aluminium spat could worsen oversupply Reports that the US is considering rescinding Canada’s exemption to its 10% tariff on aluminium this week are unlikely to have much of an impact on the metal’s price. But such moves have the potential... 24th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update A minor star called tin We have turned more positive on the outlook for the price of tin. China’s demand is coming back strongly after a virus-related slump and, in the more medium-term, tin will benefit from its heavy use... 19th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Turning more positive on base metals We think that the recovery in equity prices has further to run, and now expect an even swifter economic rebound in China. Accordingly, we have raised our base metal price forecasts, which now show a... 18th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Oversupply is far worse than exchange stocks suggest Exchange stocks are best used to judge the breadth of the downturn in metal demand, rather than the depth. With that in mind, we think that exchange stocks will help to tell us when demand for metal... 3rd June 2020 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Are China’s smelters starting to struggle? So far, there is only limited evidence that a lack of raw material is constraining output at Chinese smelters. But we think that will change in the months ahead. In our view, output is still most... 29th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Industrial Metals Update China infrastructure splurge to prop up iron ore price The fiscal stimulus announced today at the National People’s Congress in China failed to make much of a splash in metals markets. Nevertheless, we think it will underpin stronger iron ore demand this... 22nd May 2020 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update China stockpiling is not a long-term solution The incentives offered by China’s provincial governments will artificially boost demand for base metals, especially lead and zinc. As a result, smelters who may have cut supply or shut altogether may... 29th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Vale cuts won’t prevent iron ore surplus Vale, the world’s second largest iron ore producer, has cut its iron ore output guidance for 2020 by nearly 30m tonnes. Although significant, we don’t think it will be enough to push the market into a... 20th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Lower steel production to drag on iron ore prices Iron ore prices have been supported so far this year by China’s steel mills, which have continued to churn out metal. But with demand in China still subdued, and the virus-related disruption yet to... 8th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Why supply cuts don’t matter (yet) Several producers outside China have reduced operations in the past week, most notably in Latin America. But much like policy support, lower supply will do little to boost prices so long as measures... 25th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Even after this week’s sell-off, the worst is yet to pass Over the last month, industrial metals prices had been holding up on hopes that China’s economy was edging closer to a post-virus recovery. But that all changed this week. With what were once downside... 20th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update When will commodities find their feet? As commodity prices continue to flash red, this Update summarises how we think things will play out from here. In the near term, we suspect that further price falls are in store, regardless of policy... 18th March 2020 · 3 mins read